How do the Dallas Stars use analytics?

Jim Nill is in the information business.

The Dallas Stars general manager is always gathering and evaluating data. He’s an old scout that watches countless hours of hockey both on video and in person each week, while he spends seemingly just as much time on the phone with contacts around the league.

“There aren’t many GMs more connected than Jim Nill,” another NHL GM told me before this season started. “Nothing surprises him. And the fact he’s been able to do what he’s done in a short time in Dallas, that’s probably a testament to that. Jim knew what was going on the in the league when he was second in command in Detroit, now he’s even more connected.”

Nill has been in upper-level management since 1994, when the Detroit Red Wings hired him as their director of player development. Throughout his career Nill has prided himself on staying ahead of the curve and understanding the direction the game is going, and in doing so gathering as much information as possible.

“I think you have to do that,” Nill said. “You have to keep your ears and eyes open for everything. You also have to be able to sort through information and figure out what’s important, but you can’t rule anything out until you’ve looked further into it.”

That brings us to analytics, which have become a major player in the NHL over the past five seasons, perhaps longer. Several teams have invested in analytics companies, hired independent researchers, while one team even hired the head of an analytics company as their general manager.

So, how do the Stars look at analytics? Nill and I discussed that last week before the Stars played the Vegas Golden Knights on Dec. 9.

“We use it, we’re in it. We’re analyzing it all the time. Is there a trend there? And once again our biggest obstacle is our sport is different than most sports. It’s not a one-on-one, it’s not a pitcher throwing to a batter that we can say ‘Ok, here is his history.’ The speed of our game, the bounce of the puck, the goal post, goaltending can change anything,” Nill said. “The other night our analytics in St. Louis were very good, but we lost 3-0, so you got to be careful.

“There is some good things to it, we’re trying to find trends,” Nill added. “We’ve invested in an analytics company and pretty interesting how they do it. It’s not people doing it, it’s all computerized.”

So what are the Stars looking for?

“We’re trying to find the right trends. That’s what we’re trying to find,” Nill said. “Is there some consistency somewhere that these parameters are pretty consistent with how we’re playing. That’s what were trying to figure out. And we’re starting to find some trends. Like I get back to the first month of the season we were playing well, but weren’t winning. I liked how we were playing, and the numbers backed it up to.”

Nill wouldn’t say which numbers in particular the Stars are tracking, but he did say it’s evolved as they’ve broken down and dissected the data.

“We’re trying to see which numbers are worth following and worth taking stock in,” Nill said. “Some numbers are doing well, but may not impact winning or losing. If that’s the case, you eventually have to throw those numbers away, because they’re lying to us, and that’s the tough part.”

And Stars look at data on both a micro and macro level. The analytics company the Stars have invested in sends a report to coaching staff for each upcoming opponent, while reports are run on individual players when a potential trade or free agent signing is being considered.

Nill recently returned from the NHL board of governors meeting where analytics and data were a key talking point. The NHL is looking into a league-wide player and puck-tracking software, which will hopefully be in place for the 2019-20 season.

“We’d like to get into that, for me as a manager I’d like to get into that because it’s more information,” Nill said. “The league wants to do it more, so you can sit at a game and pull up the last shift and see that slap shot was 102 miles per hour, and this player skated 25 miles per hour, and that hit was so many pounds per inch, and fans love that.”

Seems like everyone is on board, right?

“The big hurdle is for players and agents,” Nill said. “Is this going to be used against me in negotiations? It might help me, or it might hurt me. So I think there is a hesitation there.”

And advanced stats have become more prevalent in negotiations in recent years. Particularly with an agent or player trying to boost their case or trying to generate a better deal.

“That happens all the time. I talk to agents and they pull out a stat, and I can pull up a stat about the same player that goes against it,” Nill said.

And what about the public-facing data on independent sites? The fact several independent analytics experts have been hired by NHL teams should tell us something, right?

“It’s not always accurate, you can twist anything you want,” Nill said. “There are some really good resources, some that match up with what we’re looking at. And some that don’t. So once again you have to be careful.”