What the heck to do with Jurickson Profar?

There was a time, in the early twenty-teens, that to envision a Texas Rangers team of the future without starting shortstop (or second baseman) Jurickson Profar was madness. He was one of the guaranteed stars of the years to come, a can’t-miss prospect who headlined the hopes and dreams of Rangers fans, and surely, between Profar and Mike Olt, Texas was heading into a bright and right-filled future.

In the intervening time, we’ve seen how hope makes a mockery of us all. Texas has struggled between success and mediocrity, Mike Olt became a cautionary tale, and Jurickson Profar has spent all of 206 games over the last four years with the big league team. While the team’s larger struggles have been difficult to ascribe to a single cause, Profar’s really stem from one place: The shoulder injury he suffered in 2014, the fact that it cost him two seasons of development at a still-young age, and Rougned Odor’s ascension in his absence. Additionally, the injury (rather, injuries) have probably limited Profar to second base permanently, as there’s just not quite the same zip on his throws as there was when he was a rookie.

That injury – the same kind of injury, to twist the knife, that Clayton Kershaw came back from easily, with no real apparent lingering issues – is exactly the kind of thing you don’t want happening to your top prospect. If Profar doesn’t miss those two years, what kind of player are we looking at? At this point in time, if everything breaks well, Profar would have likely lived up to the promise his polished bat as a prospect displayed, and over the five full seasons between 2013 and 2017, probably has at least one ~.300 year*. In this new timeline, Profar’s also been an All Star at least once, there are goofy shirt designs of his smile, and the buzz is about what kind of deal he’s going to sign, and if Jon Daniels is going to try to extend him – he has to! He just has to!

Unfortunately, the rosy alternate history outlined above is not what today’s reality entails. Instead of writing paeans to Profar’s indispensable-ness to the Rangers, we must now consider what trading him could mean. Last season, Profar only played 22 games at the major league level, and any lasting hope that he would eventually get to fulfill his potential with the team that signed him, that died when September came around and he didn’t even get a token big league appearance. The relationship between the Texas Rangers and Jurickson Profar is likely over, and it would be best for both parties to move on.

Profar is arbitration eligible in 2018, though not a free agent until 2021. He’s still the player with the talent that made former Baseball Prospectus top prospect dude Jason Parks swoon, but what showed as something to be refined at age 18 has yet to really appear at age 24. He’s a reclamation project – which is great, as the team hoping to refinish him, but not good news for the team attempting to get back some value. (That’s such a heartless way to describe it, too, taking a years-long developmental relationship and discussing the severing of it as “a way to get back some value”, but that’s baseball.) Texas will probably only get a prospect or a reliever in return for Profar, unless he’s traded as part of some larger package, and no one off a top 10 list. That’s the transactional reality: At this current moment in time, with arbitration looming, Scott Boras as an agent, and unproven potential, Profar’s not worth what other major league players could command.

However, as bitter a pill as it might be to swallow for Texas, and for the fans that pinned their hopes on the young Curaçao native, this is for the best. If Profar is going to have any real success, it will need to happen away from the environment where all he’s been able to do is fail to live up to expectations. With teams embracing the concept of rebuilding, or even tanking, more these days, an ideal fit would be some team able to give the major league at-bats Profar needs to both hone his skills and rebuild his confidence. Someone like the San Diego Padres would make sense. The Padres have been rebuilding, it seems, for time immemorial, but with the current crop of prospects, they might finally be only a few years away. A few seasons, for Profar to both rebuild himself and become a veteran on a team likely to be full of youngsters.

Time moves on, and those lost years are just that – lost. Jurickson Profar might once have had a bright future with the Texas Rangers, but to make plans is to tempt fate, and fate, for once, won. Now, all that’s left is the memory of a bright summer day, and the can’t-miss shortstop prospect who did.

*It’s hard to write in the future/past tense, but you know, what must be done.