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Rangers Mailbag: Defensive Metrics, a Bad Trade Idea, and it’s Fight Time

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The first time we did a Rangers mailbag, this thing devolved into ranking the various stages of Cole Hamels’ beard. That seems like an unmitigated success to me, so let’s do another one!

Oh. OH. We’re gonna– okay, we’re going to do actual baseball questions. Alright, then.

Let’s pull up some data, shall we?

What th-

We’re rabbit-trailing here, but Lorenzo Cain’s baseball-reference page doesn’t show up in the first five pages of that search.

Anyway, part of the science of comparison is having a test group and a control group. Let’s call Lorenzo Cain the control group, since it’s easier to know what you’re getting with a seven-year veteran (five of them full seasons) than with a three-year veteran (two of them full seasons). Cain will be 32 in April. DeShields turns 26 in August. Additionally, while in the minor leagues, DeShields played exclusively second base as recently as 2013. By 2015, he was a full-time outfielder. So let’s call him the test group.

Here’s Lorenzo Cain’s advanced defensive metrics on FanGraphs:

I want to look at two specific statistics here. The first is DRS. That stands for Defensive Runs Saved. You can read more about it here, and read even more here, but the short version, according to FG is this: zero means average for the position. Anything above 5 is above-average, 10 and up is great, and 15+ is Gold Glove atmosphere. That means that for 2013-15, Lorenzo Cain was among the best center fielders in baseball.

It also means that last year, he just barely cracked “above average”.

Now let’s look at UZR. That stands for Ultimate Zone Rating, and it’s a lot more technical than DRS. It accounts for the likelihood of a ball being caught, the type of batted ball, the… it’s a lot. You can read all about the methodology here. But again, the data says that Cain was an elite center fielder in 2013-15, but declined in 2016, and became downright average in 2017.

Fielders, especially those playing positions dependent upon speed, do not often improve after age 31.

Now let’s look at DeShields:

DeShields was average in left field and downright terrible in centerfield in his first season. But remember, he was still learning the position. Check out last year’s numbers. His overall DRS of 7 was two better than Cain. And his UZR of 6.9 was significantly nicer than Cain’s 1.6. Right?

Almost. If you’ll notice, all of Cain’s numbers are in CF. DeShields played a lot of left field last season. Compare the CF/CF numbers: Cain’s were better.

I trust these numbers over the StatCast Catch Probability leaderboard, which you can find here. According to Statcast, Cain was 5th-best in the league in Outs Above Average, at 15, despite only making one 5-star catch (3.1%). DeShields is 24th at just 4 OAA, despite making two 5-star catches (11.1%). The big separating factor was in 2-star catches: Cain made the play 92.9% of the time, and DeShields only pulled in 72.7%.

That seems like an anomaly, given that they were nearly identical in 4- 3-, and 1-star catches.

It’s a really great question (thanks, Kevin!). In sum, I would say my answer looks like this:

Delino DeShields’ defense in left field in 2017 was better than Lorenzo Cain’s in centerfield. Cain’s was better in centerfield than DeShields in center, but DeShields is learning and improving, and Cain is declining. 

The real question is secondary: does Cain in center field—shifting DeShields to left—make the team better in 2018? Defensively, the answer is clear: you’re absolutely upgrading left field, and probably upgrading (or at least holding steady in) center. But if you sign Cain, who plays DH? Choo, with Calhoun in AAA? Or Calhoun, with Choo ejected into a money-eating trade? And it’s in that tertiary question that you begin to see the complication of whether or not to sign Lorenzo Cain.

EDIT:

Excellent point, Bennett. But did you ever consider this? That I totally forgot that? Wow, I bet you feel silly now, Bennett.

Jokes aside, that’s a great point, though some of the above still applies: at a position where speed is essential, things like hamstrings start to become a bigger risk post-30, and hamstrings are one of those injuries that tends to become a recurring problem. A healthy season would certainly allow Cain to improve on his 2017, but I do wonder what the likelihood is of him staying healthy for 2018, much less the rest of a contract.

Noooope.

It’s real, especially with Martin Perez likely to miss the first month of the season due to a bullfighting incident.

The bullpen right now looks like this:
Alex Claudio, Jake Diekman, Keone Kela, Tony Barnette, Chris Martin, Jose Leclerc, and Ricky Rodriguez. Connor Sadzeck might be ready this season, and Clayton Blackburn and Nick Gardewine—one would hope—are a season’s worth of work better than they were this time last season. Austin Bibens-Dirkx isn’t on the 40-man right now, but he’ll be in camp.

In short, the bullpen has more optimistic options right now than the rotation, which—after Bush—features such hopefuls as Bibens-Dirkx, Ronald Herrera, Yohander Mendez, and, uh.

that’s it.

I like to think that when he swings, it provides his mind with a moment of pure, blissful silence. Any haunting regrets or unfulfilled hopes are all muted for that instant. No fears of death or aging, no concerns about nuclear war, no one touching his head. Just a pure silent moment of zen.

If they bring back the sleeveless uniforms, I am blaming you personally, and we will wage a blood feud that spans generations.

Do the Rangers make the playoffs in 2018?

— Kyle Power (@K_Wee_Zee) January 6, 2018

As currently constructed on Saturday, January 6th? No.

Yes! I still don’t think they’re going to splurge on a Darvish / Cobb / Lynn / Arrieta move, Jon Daniels has been forthcoming in saying that they’re still very actively considering all options in the free agent / trade market. If I had to guess, I’d say it’s not a front-of-the-rotation pickup; maybe a Jaime Garcia or Andrew Cashner on the top end, or Chris Tillman resurrection or R.A. Dickey reunion on the low end.

I had an interesting thought today: I wonder if the Marlins would package Dan Straily (cheap, under control until 2020), Wei-Yen Chen ($10m, $20, $22m, $16 vesting option), and Christian Yelich ($7m, $9.75m, $12.5m, $14m, and $15m team option in 2022) for a package centered around Shin-Soo Choo ($20m, $21m, $21m).

Chen’s definitely a risk, returning from a partial UCL tear last season and pitching out of the bullpen in September, but the Rangers would decrease their 2018 payroll by [$3m minus whatever Straily gets paid in arbitration] while adding an all-star caliber outfielder and clearing DH for Willie Calhoun. Meanwhile, by adding Straily and Chen to the rotation, you bump—at least—Matt Bush back to the bullpen (and then make up your mind which of Chen/Minor you want starting, and which one goes to the pen.


I see what you’re trying to say here, but after hearing Matt Moore talk about the adjustments he plans to make in 2018, I’m actually optimistic.


It all comes down to his health. If he gets injured, you’re looking at a platoon between Juan Centeno and Brett Nicholas. I’m bad enough at guessing at things that can be objectively measured, much less things that are as unpredictable as health. I do know Chirinos doesn’t have a great track record of staying healthy, but if he does, he has the talent to be the everyday guy.


I don’t know! It’s fascinating. I know that more information is always helpful, and sharing scouting reports and training tips can’t be a bad thing. I think the Padres actually had a very similar partnership with the Fighters for the last few seasons, and we saw San Diego inexplicably in the list of finalists for Ohtani, so maybe the familiarity was a factor? I wish I had a better answer for you, but I’m excited to get to Spring Training and ask around about the hopes and expectations for this partnership.

It’s not often you’ll get a straight answer from me on these things, but I gave this some thought, and I’m going with Jeff. He played college football, and seems to have the ability to get wild. I’d be in a band with KT, and if it came down to it, I’d be honored to have either guy on my side in a scrap, but if it has to be one or the other, Jeff seems to have more tangible battle skills.

Ok, new teams: it’s Jeff, KT, and me against you and No Sleeves Logan in a fight now.


I think you meant to address this to Jon Daniels’ secret twitter account. But hey, if you’ll give me assurances that we can get Eickhoff, Alfaro, and Odubel Herrera back, I can certainly pass the message along.


I’m not sure the return you could get for him right now is worth more than his value to the team as a switch-hitting play-seven-positions super utility guy, awaiting word on whether or not Andrus is sticking around beyond 2018. If Elvis stays, you can probably jettison Profar as part of a deal. But you don’t want to trade Profar now and find yourself looking for a shortstop in January of 2019. Profar isn’t likely to relish the UTIL by his name on a baseball card, but unless Texas can get good value for him, I think they have to hold on to him for another year.

My RV has a functioning stove and a microwave, so to save money on a trip, I generally make a stop by the grocery store and pick up some canned vegetables and meats. They store well, and I don’t have to keep the generator running all the time to keep the fridge on. It’s usually cool enough in Arizona that I can keep refrigerated goods overnight in the outside compartment, but I have to eat them for breakfast, because it warms up during the day. The one exception: if it’s too cold and I’m running the generator at night to stay warm, I can freeze ice packs in the freezer, then put a few small refrigerated goods in the freezer and the ice packs keep them cool enough.

Also, Booty’s—while having a name that makes it sound like a dingy Alabama strip club—is actually just a dive of a burger joint with world-famous hamburgers, so I’ll end up eating dinner there more often than I should.

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  2. ALSO, got a Q for your next mailbag.

    Do you have any weird baseball-related theories that it would be nearly impossible to change your mind on despite not being backed up by any evidence whatsoever?
    As an example, for years I’ve held the belief that Brian Wilson–former Giants closer–smells like a homeless man. I have no rational basis for this assumption. I’ve never been within a hundred miles of the man, but when I look at him I think “I bet he smells really terrible.” Nothing short of a contrary personal experience would convince me otherwise. (And no intended disrespect or judgement of the homeless.)

  3. Your ‘bad trade’ makes me feel more strongly about signing Cain, if he can be had for 3-4 yrs. Yes, he will decline some, but Mike Petriello recently made the case that it won’t be as steep as many fear. That will float the lineup along until the new stadium and (maybe?) some pitching develops.

    As for trades, you could package Choo (maybe Profar) for a SP with a bad contract that would even out. Then you hope you’ve got just enough in the budget to be in play for a pitcher for 2019 and beyond.

    • My only problem with the “Choo for an SP with a bad contract” (and I know I’m trashing my own trade suggestion here) is that Choo is a good hitter. He’s just not a very good defender. If I want to contend and I’m overpaying anyway, I’d rather overpay for a good hitter than for a bad pitcher. The reason I’d be willing to take the Chen flyer would be if it included an affordable Straily, and I could shoehorn it into a trade for Yelich.

      (you’ll note that I didn’t mention the prospects involved, because …….it would be a lot, I think.)

      The eagerness to trade Choo is that the Rangers just have a surplus of
      – left-handed hitters
      – corner outfielders / DH-types.

      That will only increase if they sign Cain, making DeShields another corner outfielder, contending with Choo, Mazara and Calhoun for playing time. Offloading Choo puts Calhoun at DH, and so on.

      It’s a sticky situation, but if they open the season with Choo at DH, I’m not going to be mad about them keeping the .357 OBP guy who walked 77 times last year. (I just don’t want to see him playing RF much.)

      • Choo is an interesting (though hardly unprecedented) case in that you are right–he is a good hitter that most lineups would like to have. The contract is the pumpkin rotting on the porch.

        This is where WAR is a context relevant stat. I mean, Choo was worth .8 fWAR last year, but consider the replacements—he’s probably not worth much more than the younger, cheaper options the Rangers have. That’s why I say trade him for a SP. The way I see it, there are two basic trade frameworks here:

        1. Swap bad contracts. Look at a guy like Jordan Zimmerman, who has not been good by any stretch, but has been reasonably healthy, isn’t too old, and (who knows?) might be awesome again. I don’t think the Tigers would do this deal, but this is the sort of pitcher you would get in this swap.

        2. Sweeten the swap. Offer to pay 80% of Choo’s salary, toss in another piece, and ask Oakland for Kendall Graveman or Jesse Hahn.

        Option 2 looks pretty great, if you found the right trade partner. You add a long-term arm for the rotation and save enough money to still be adding. If Cain’s market really is down, and you could get him for, say, 3 years and $55million, you’d have added maybe $15M in budget and gotten a quality arm and a quality RH bat+CF defense.

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