Scouting report: Carlos Tocci, Rangers’ Rule Five Addition

With the fourth pick in the Rule 5 Draft, the Chicago White Sox selected Phillies outfield prospect Carlos Tocci. We learned a few minutes later that Tocci was actually being selected by the Rangers, who had purchased Tocci’s rights for yet-to-be-disclosed cash considerations.

Despite being a name prospect since shortly after he signed with the Phillies out of Venezuela in 2012, Tocci just turned 22 at the end of the season. This is the third time the Phillies have exposed him to Rule 5, but the first time he’s actually a plausible pick to stay on the active MLB roster for the required 90 days. Tocci hit .307/.362/.398 in his first shot at Double-A this season, even making the Eastern League All-Star Game, before a less-successful few weeks in Triple-A to end the season. 2017 represented Tocci’s best professional campaign by a significant margin, after several years of scuffling in A-ball, and reignited hopes that he might hit enough to be a starting MLB centerfielder.

Tocci was one of the few position players exposed to Rule 5 who is probably capable of handling a major-league role in 2018, albeit a sheltered one as a part-time centerfielder. He’s been an above-average quality defender in center for years now; he takes good routes, throws well enough, and has a decisive first step paired with strong closing speed. Offensively, as he’s matured he’s developed a solid offensive approach and feel for hitting that should let him survive in the majors. He has the rare pretty-looking swing from a right-handed hitter, and it comes with a fairly quick, short bat path.

The downside to the offensive game is that Tocci has well below-average physical strength and therefore little power projection. Five years ago, there was the legitimate hope that the body was projectable and fill out, and it filled out a little, but he’s still really skinny and never developed more than minimal gap power. This has some offensive cascade effects in that pitchers usually feel pretty safe throwing him strikes, which limits his walk rate. There’s also some concern that MLB quality stuff—especially from the types of fastball/slider power righties that everyone deploys now against hitters like Tocci in the late-innings—could just eat him alive. This could limit him to a platoon/reserve sort of role on a contending club. He does lose a bit of utility in being a poor pinch-running option; despite being a plus runner both down the baseline and in the field, he’s not a good baserunner.

If this all sounds a bit duplicative of Delino DeShields for the Rangers, well, it’s a similar skill set at the plate. Tocci is a better defender and DeShields is a better baserunner. Where Tocci might fit in short-term is playing center when DeShields bumps to a corner to give one of the lefty bats a day off, or for late-inning defensive purposes. It’s possible that in a year or two’s time, he could develop into a regular in center if he can handle right-handed pitching enough. Given what was probably a significant cash acquisition cost to get him and Texas’s general lack of upper-level bench-type outfield depth, Tocci should have an excellent shot to make the roster out of spring training.