Scouting Report: Jurickson Profar

This piece has been a long time coming. I saw Jurickson Profar late in the 2017 season when I wanted to see Willie Calhoun (the return for Darvish) in person. I had heard concerning things regarding Profar’s future projection and it was easy to buy into them after his consistently subpar numbers at the MLB level. But the player I saw was surprising… in an encouraging way. So let’s ignore the player Profar was before his injury, the storylines surrounding him, and the service time remaining. Instead, let’s focus on what kind of player Profar projects as now.

Profar stands at 6’0″ and is filled out at 195 lbs. He has an average frame with good muscle on his legs and torso, and little extra weight. While nothing on the body screams loud tools, the first time he moves, that preconception flies out the window. His movements are quick, fluid, and efficient. He controls his body exceptionally well and that coordination shows while he’s at the plate or in the field.

Profar’s swing is consistent, compact, and mechanically sound. After a light load and medium timing step, he fires his hips, transferring his weight towards the pitcher. He gets his back elbow into excellent position without barring his front arm at all. Profar also keeps the upper body fluid and controls the barrel through the zone. At the point of contact, Profar’s momentum is towards the ball with the front leg extended and carrying the weight. This allows him to tap into his raw power completely, generating plus bat speed. In addition, he has elite coordination and feel for barrel. To top it all off, Profar has a top tier approach and rarely swings at pitches far out of the zone. All in all, he has a double-plus hit tool, plus on-base skill, and enough pop for 15 home runs.

The defense is the more concerning part of the equation. Profar no longer has the double-plus arm that allowed his tools to play up at shortstop, though he still has average arm strength and is more than capable of making accurate throws across the diamond. Profar’s range is above-average due to his quickness, even though he lacks the foot speed typical in range-y shortstops. Lastly, Profar is fluid with the leather and uses his coordination to scoop up anything he can get close to. The entire package sums up to a player that doesn’t necessarily profile as an average shortstop and is probably more suited towards second base, where he can be an above-average to plus defender.

Profar profiles as a starting second baseman on a first-division team right now and it puts the Rangers in a very peculiar spot. Despite an abysmal season by Rougned Odor, it would be very hard for the Rangers to give up on a $50M investment and allow Profar to fight for the starting second base spot. Regardless, due to Odor’s concerning peripherals and trends, it might be the right move to see what Profar can do there and then solving what to do with Odor.

Another kink in the chain is that the Rangers might be without starting shortstop Elvis Andrus if he opts out of his contract after 2018. Profar would allow them some insurance there so that it’s not necessary to overpay Andrus if the price gets unreasonably high. The last problem is the reality that teams aren’t willing to give the Rangers much value for Profar in a trade due to his uncertain history, even if they still believe he projects as an MLB player.

Despite the tribulations that Profar has faced, he’s still a valuable player that can carve out a solid MLB career. Assuming a team doesn’t want to send equal value to the Rangers for Profar, they should hold onto him and allow him to carve out an opportunity for consistent playing time. While Profar may never live up to the number one prospect status, at this point it would surprise me if he didn’t carve out a productive career on an MLB team.