Scouting Report: Ronald Guzman

It seems like Ronald Guzman has been around forever. He was acquired by the Rangers during the same international signing period as Nomar Mazara, but didn’t break out offensively the same way that Mazara did. The 6’5” 245-pound first baseman was expected to develop game power that would catch up to a more advanced hit tool, but his first four seasons as a professional were largely disappointing. He never hit more than 9 home runs in a season and was seemingly stagnating as a prospect.

In 2016 he broke out a bit, putting up a slash line of .288/.348/.477 and hitting 15 home runs in AA Frisco. His performance forced the question on whether he could take over as the Rangers first base position as soon as 2018. In 2017, there were some positives, as he increased his walk rate and reduced his strike out rate, but his slugging dropped significantly and his .298 batting average was propped up by an unsustainable BABIP of .342. Guzman’s 2017 was not very good overall and it showcased the concerns about Guzman’s offensive skillset. That being said, he does have the potential to improve and there are good reasons to feel cautiously optimistic about his future.

The star of the show for Ronald Guzman is his hit tool. Guzman has excellent hand eye coordination for his height, and a great feel for getting the bat on the ball. Guzman’s swing is compact and he keeps his hands closer to his body. As a result, he doesn’t have trouble keeping up on fastballs and can afford to sit back and wait on breaking pitches if he recognizes them (a skill he’s improving at every year). Guzman’s swing and coordination allow him to hit for what should be a solid batting average and his improving approach should allow him to get on base at a nice clip.

The concern offensively is the game power. Guzman generates above average bat speed and has the momentum behind his swing to produce plus raw power, but that has never translated more than fringe-average game power. That is a problem for a first baseman. Guzman doesn’t sell out for power by barring his arm or collapsing his core during his swing, but with his size, he shouldn’t need to in order to generate power on his fly balls. Despite that, his HR/FB in 2017 was only about 8.6%, or 5 percentage points under Nomar Mazara.

The main reason for this is that Guzman doesn’t pull the ball hard in the air and the majority of his home runs go to center or opposite field. Guzman likes to let the ball travel deep into the zone before initiating, but that approach limits his offensive potential. With Guzman’s size and strength, he could potentially hit for above average game power while keeping his high average if he could adjust this approach.

Guzman will surprise everyone in baseball when he does the splits on a stretch play at first base for the first time on the big stage. In addition to being flexible, he has a tremendous wing span and provides a massive target for his infield. Guzman has limited range laterally, but has a quick first step that allows him to make plays in his area. He has above average arm strength, but occasionally struggles with footwork and accuracy that makes his arm play down to fringe-average. The total package should allow him to be an above average defender at first base with a bit of fun added in.

Ronald Guzman is honestly a bit hard to build a projection for. The swing and tools are easy to look at and see a powerful slugger in the middle of the lineup who hits for power and average, but the low power approach and consistently mediocre offensive production creates problems. Despite those concerns, Guzman’s hit tool, approach, and fielding should allow him to develop into a league average first baseman with the potential for more if he can adjust his approach and tap into his significant raw power.