(Editor’s Note: We at the Upset are sorry for the unsettling photo. Also, the editor is me, Levi. Furthermore, I’m not actually sorry. I almost went Full Horrifying and added sea creatures, but decided this was sufficiently creepy for one January afternoon.)
The whole scenario is a bit like a game of musical chairs.
As Christmas carols bounced around sparkle-lit living rooms in Arlington last month, four players stopped circling and stood uneasily at their four chairs, sizing one another up.
In front of the white chair marked “Center Field”, Delino DeShields’ glances darted around the room like mice. Nomar Mazara stood casually in front of the bright red “Left Field” chair, coolly keeping an eye on the light blue “Right Field” chair where Shin-Soo Choo stood, eyeing the others. Willie Calhoun glanced over his shoulder as he sat in the green “Designated Hitter” chair.
“Willie,” came a voice from the narrator of this completely made-up scenario. “You can’t sit down yet. The music hasn’t stopped.”
“I know,” Willie responded dismissively. “But y’all know I belong here. Let me know if I need to move.”
“Move,” came the command.
Calhoun effortlessly slid into the red chair as Mazara vacated it, casually shifting over to the space in front of the blue chair. This displaced Choo, who took three steps to his left, landing in front of the green chair. DeShields appeared to stayed put, having run an entire lap around the circle before anyone could see the movement.
The Christmas carols faded into “Auld Lang Syne” and the tension grew.
“We don’t eliminate chairs in this game,” came the voice of the narrator. “But we do introduce a new player once in awhile.” The four players in their four chairs traded glances as a shadow appeared in the doorway. “That’s Lorenzo Cain,” continued the narrator. “If we open the door, the white chair is his.”
DeShields leveled his gaze at Calhoun, who was busy staring lasers into Choo. Mazara yawned.
And thus began the standoff.
—
At some point, the music will stop. Delino DeShields will be in center field or left field. Nomar Mazara will be in left field or right field. Shin-Soo Choo will be in right field or at designated hitter, or in another uniform. Willie Calhoun will be at designated hitter or in left field or at AAA. Lorenzo Cain will be in center field somewhere, but maybe not in Arlington.
Yesterday’s Rangers mailbag delved a little into the defensive metrics of DeShields vs Cain in center field, and while Cain’s hamstring issues hampered his defense in 2017, that injury isn’t a non-factor for a 32-year-old center fielder. Hamstring issues tend to linger. But even if Cain eventually ends up in left field and DeShields stays in center, the addition of the former Royal would indubitably improve the Rangers’ outfield defense, something Jon Daniels has repeatedly said is a priority.
Mazara is safe. His 2017 was a disappointment if you compare it to his 2016 rookie campaign, but not if you remind yourself that he was only 22. If you had to invent a position for Mazara, you might tinker around for about fifteen seconds before realizing that you had just invented the designated hitter, but he’s the third-worst fielder of this bunch, so sticking him in either right or left field is fine for now.
Here is something that blows my mind: as recently as 2013, Shin-Soo Choo played 150 games in center field for the Cincinnati Reds. 150 games! It was an unmitigated failure. Choo piled up a remarkable -16.9 UZR and a -18 DRS. That’s not Mike-Napoli-in-left-field bad, but it’s bad. Last season, Choo had -15.4 UZR in right field, and -6 DRS.
But Choo can still hit. Or, more accurately, he can still get on base.
In the 2015 pennant chase, Choo was one of—if not the—best offensive players in baseball, batting .343 with an on-base percentage of .455 and a 1.016 OPS in 69 games after the All-Star Game. In the two seasons since, he has battled a myriad of nagging injuries to accumulate this two-year line in 197 games (846 plate appearance):
.256 batting average, .357 on-base percentage, .774 OPS. He has hit 29 home runs, driven in 95 runs, and scored 123 others. He has walked 102 times (77 of those in 2017) and struck out 180.
Meanwhile, here’s what Willie Calhoun did in 128 games (534 plate appearances) at AAA in 2017:
.300 batting average, .355 on-base percentage, .927 OPS. He hit 31 home runs, drove in 93 runs, and scored 80 of his own. He walked 42 times and struck out 61.
Calhoun is about as close to a can’t miss hitting prospect as you’re likely to find in the Rangers’ farm system. But—like DeShields—his conversion from second base to outfield hasn’t been without its challenges. He has, he told us in December, been working hard on improving his defense this winter. It will be interesting to see what he looks like once the tunes shift from winter dirges to Valentine’s Day love songs in Surprise, Arizona.
It appears that there are really only three likely outcomes.
1. The Rangers pass on Cain, opting to roll with DeShields in center and either Choo in right field or Calhoun in left, with the other sliding into the rightful position of designated hitter and Mazara filling the open corner outfield position.
2. Texas signs Cain (shifting DeShields to left and Mazara to right), and finds a salary-dump trade for Choo, betting on Calhoun’s 2017 translating to success at the big league level in 2018.
3. Texas signs Cain (shifting DeShields to left and Mazara to right), and sticks with the veteran Choo at DH, giving Calhoun a little more time to season at AAA before he rakes at Globe Life Park (and then Globe Life Field) for years to come.
Either way, the music is going to stop soon.
Adam Borghee says
Amazing Levi you never disappoint!!!
Adam Borghee says
And I also want Cain!
Rbudai says
Where does Gallo fit into all of this? No doubt he’s in the lineup, but is he locked in at 1B? Would it be worth looking at him in RF/LF and looking at Mazara/Choo at 1B some in Spring Training? Joey seems more athletic than Mazara and possibly Choo and a cannon attached to his right side which would help in the OF. Just spitballin.
Enjoyed the site since I subscribed.
Michael Luna says
I’d say Gallo probably makes sense at 1B until Beltre’s ready to retire and vacate 3B…meaning Gallo gets to move over there sometime in the mid-2030s.
Kolby Kerr says
I agree with the idea behind this. I feel like this is one of those ‘looks-good-on-paper’ ideas that would be a tough thing to ask of all the players involved. Remember how perfect the Profar-as-Ben-Zobrist idea sounded.
Gallo might be a better COF than Maz, Willie, or Choo, but moving everybody around to find the optimal fit might create more problems than it solves. I also think they are still tentatively promising Gallo third base long-term, so the outfield conversion might feel like a pivot away.
Michael Luna says
On top of that, no guarantee either Mazara or Choo will take to 1B. If I recall, they briefly flirted with moving David Murphy over there toward the end of his time here, but quickly realized he just couldn’t cut it.
Levi Weaver says
You’re probably right that Gallo is a better LF/RF defender than Mazara, Choo, or Calhoun. But Gallo—while athletic enough to provide quality defense at four positions—provides the most value as a hitter. Putting him at first base is more likely to keep him healthy so he can hit. If he provides +defense there, all the better.
Putting him at a corner outfield spot would improve the outfield defense a little, but then you have to wonder how much you’re losing on defense at first base as one of the two guys learns the position. I think it’s a net loss, -AND- you’d be putting Gallo’s legs in more peril.
In short – it could be done, but I don’t think I’d do it.
If I were moving anyone to first base, it would be Adrian Beltre.
Brenda Johnson says
Yikes. I wonder how Beltre would feel about playing first base?
Levi Weaver says
I don’t think he would be interested yet, and frankly, if Adrian Beltre says no, the answer is no. It seems to make logical sense, though (to me, and perhaps only me).
Michael Luna says
If I’d known my subscription would be paying you to photoshop *that* abomination…well, I still would’ve subscribed, but maybe using an alias and paying with money funneled through a shell corporation. As it is, you’ve made me complicit in your crimes.
Kolby Kerr says
Are we sure that the team is committed to DeShields being a starter on this team? I feel like there’s still a fourth option where they bring in a full-time CF option, but Calhoun, Maz, and Choo take up the bulk of COF/DH AB’s and Delino gets 100 games as a fourth outfielder, pinch runner, and defensive replacement. I’m not rooting against him, but I don’t think his spot in the starting lineup is a given.
Zach Johnson says
DeShields has more value as an everyday OF than as a bench player. He’s one of the few players we have that can create runs on the basepaths at a high level.
Kolby Kerr says
I like Delino and, yes, he certainly has value as an everyday player. I’m just saying that IF they decide he’s not an everyday CF (or if they just decide to upgrade), AND they don’t (or can’t) trade Choo, AND Willie Calhoun is ready now, then Delino is the one without a seat when the music stops.
That scenario isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Levi’s options factor in Delino and Maz as starting outfielders no matter what the alignment. At least until signings and trades happen (or don’t), I think Maz is the only lock.
Levi Weaver says
I think as it stands right now, the team is ready to give DeShields a make-or-break shot at full-time play.
His defense in 2015 (and early 2016) was bad enough that when they brought in Ian Desmond to play left field, it didn’t take long for the team to make the switch and put Ian in center. Plus, DeShields had bulked up and was trying to hit for more power. It backfired: the extra weight slowed him down, costing him his primary value. In the offseason between ’16-’17, DeShields trimmed back down and went back to what was successful for him in ’15: speeeeeeeeed. In the meantime, he has worked hard to become a better defender, and it has worked. He’s still not as good at routes as I believe he will be, but the improvement has been consistent, and he’s worlds better than he was in 2015-16.
I think the team sees that improvement (and the patience he has shown in the meantime) as warranting another shot at a full-time role. Right now, that’s in CF, but if the team brings in Cain or another superstar centerfielder, I think left field belongs to DeShields for as long as he plays well enough to keep it. I think Calhoun goes to AAA before DeShields goes to the bench (especially with Carlos Tocci already on the bench as a defensive whiz / 4th outfield option).
Kolby Kerr says
Point taken. He’s earned a shot and the numbers (whether they mean anything or not) show that things go well for the offense when Delino’s in there.
I also agree that OF defense is going to be a priority. As Kevin says below, if they think Delino can hold down CF on his own AND compensate for the minus fielders on either side, then that’s a huge burden lifted. I think that’s a big ask, especially since no matter how much he improves on his jumps and routes, his arm is still going to be a glaring weakness.
justinharris89 says
Can’t help but think whatever money that would go to Cain would be better spent on pitching, but I’m also probably more optimistic than most on Delino’s CF defense, and I’m also very excited to watch Calhoun every day and hope he gets a full-time spot in the big leagues.
Levi Weaver says
I 100% agree. Any time anyone has asked if the Rangers are bringing in Cain, my response has been “I think we see another pitcher first.”
TRangerInNY says
I love defense, but baseball seems to be figuring out it doesn’t matter if you can hit home runs (but not talking about Rougie who gets on base about 5 times per week). The Asstros OF defense was barely better, but they hit 1,000 more HRs (exaggerated slightly for emphasis).
The truth is this OF is projected as a whole to be below average defensively & below average offensively. Even if they outperform projections (& stay healthy), they probably can’t reach Average-Average. Seems to call for Cain if your goal is to contend. But don’t give him a massive list of No-trades in case they need to tear this thing down in a July coming soon.
TRangerInNY says
If you break it down by roster groupings, the Rangers were the equal of Houston at three-quarters of the infield, & only a little behind at catcher.
They were 8 wins worse in the OF,
8 wins worse at second-base,
8 wins worse in the starting rotation,
4 wins worse in the bullpen
I have no idea how they only finished 23 games behind.
Kolby Kerr says
It’s got to be about how the markets develop and their long-term plans. They probably aren’t ready (window-wise) to get a TORP this year unless the market for Arrieta or Darvish comes way down. There’s enough arms now to fill out a rotation, though I think they’ll look for more depth.
But the Rangers struck out the fewest batters last year and were middle of the pack in GB%, so converting more fly balls into outs makes all your pitchers better. Signing Cain (or acquiring another CF) would mean going from average to below average at all three OF spots to well above average at two out of the three (because Delino profiles well in left).
Someone else could try to run the calculus—I’m sure the Rangers are—but the Rangers are probably looking for the cheapest, shortest-term solution for run prevention. That could be pitching, but this is a solution too.
Levi Weaver says
I don’t disagree with any of this. I think we see a reclamation project at a low price to be (at worst) a stopgap until Perez returns, or (at best) a Wandy Rodriguez-esque surprise that allows Mike Minor to slot back into the bullpen for awhile until [mysterious new guy] turns back into a pumpkin.
TRangerInNY says
Yes, more & more pitching please. The top pitchers do come with a lot of risk, so maybe those options aren’t the best use of company resources.
Maz showed flashes in 2016 of above-average defense. The hamstring killed all that last yr. But he’s obviously got more upside than anyone else out there. It would be fun to see him figure it all out (or most of it) this year.
Cain costs a top draft pick too, so a team trying to get their system strong again can’t ignore that. He probably gets equal offers from top contenders, which requires a deep, deep reach into pockets. It’s not truly realistic. But who can really know why billionaires decide to do what they decide to do?
Kevin Carter says
I’d wager the team is interested in Calhoun over Deshields long term, but I do think Deshields gets enough PA’s this season to see if his offensive production can survive a normalized BABIP a la last year’s second half.
Deshields isn’t locked in to the starting lineup, but it would be a massive help if he could handle CF for at least the next few seasons.
Kolby Kerr says
This is right. The Rangers know that OF defense is going to be an issue—Calhoun, Choo, and Maz will make CF a crucial defensive position. If the team thinks Delino can hold it down for a few years, that’s a huge load off. But if he can’t be that guy, then he becomes the guy you are trying to ‘work in’ around the three COF/DH guys.