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STARS MAILBAG: Expansion, injuries, and hope for the #FreeHonka movement?

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The NHL’s 32nd team may have breathed it’s first breath on Thursday when the NHL said that it would accept an expansion application from Seattle.

It’s going to cost $650 million, a bit of a price hike after Bill Foley paid $500 million to get Vegas into the league, but with an arena on the way and the league’s blessing it seems like a pretty safe bet that the Seattle Sasquatch/Thunderbirds/Supersonics will be entering the league at some point.

That could mean relocation is the best option for Houston, which has been mentioned in recent reports as a candidate for the NHL, and the new owner for the Houston Rockets seems more than willing to welcome another permanent tenant at the Toyota Center.

NHL commissioner Gary Bettman was pretty adamant on Thursday that current teams in financial or arena struggles (Carolina Hurricanes, Arizona Coyotes, Ottawa Senators, Calgary Flames) don’t have any plans to move. But situations change and teams can’t lose money forever.

So if Houston got an NHL team, how would it impact the Dallas Stars?

I’ve heard two differing opinions on the matter:

A. It would be a great hockey rivalry and would grow the sport in Texas.

B. The Stars like being the team of Texas. It’s a point of pride and good business that they have a TV market that covers five NBA markets (Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, New Orleans, Oklahoma City), and they wouldn’t like to share that with the another NHL team.

Just some food for thought.

Let’s dive into the mailbag…

It’s not looking good.

When Marc Methot returns from his injury he’ll slot into the lineup, and the top-six will look something like this:

Esa Lindell — John Klingberg
Marc Methot — Stephen Johns
Dan Hamhuis — Greg Pateryn

That will leave Jamie Oleksiak as the healthy scratch in Dallas, and Julius Honka will likely be spending the rest of the season in the AHL without another injury or a major shakeup.

Greg Pateryn isn’t the problem for the #FreeHonka movement and trading him away wouldn’t create more ice time for Julius Honka.

In fact Pateryn getting traded away would probably lock Jamie Oleksiak into the lineup.

The coaching staff looks at Oleksiak as the more reliable defensive option and with Pateryn gone the Stars would need another big-minute defenseman to step up in high-leverage situations. That’s a role that would go to Oleksiak and not Honka.

There also isn’t much value in trading away Pateryn, who would net maybe a fourth or fifth-round pick in return. Pateryn is more valuable as a reliable cog in the defense and he deserves credit for the work he’s done with Dan Hamhuis.

For the #FreeHonka movement keeping Pateryn is actually the best solution. Once Marc Methot returns to the lineup, Pateryn won’t be as effective or needed as a simple defensive-first player. They’ll be more space in the lineup for a risk-taking defenseman like Honka, and the coaches could consider moving Pateryn back to the No. 7 slot as a reliable insurance policy.

If Pateryn were traded away before Methot returns, Oleksiak would just step into the lineup earn the coaching staff’s trust (right or wrong) and potentially never come out.

It is statistically backed.

Of the Stars eight defenders, Oleksiak has the worst possession numbers with a Corsi For Pecentage of 48.42. He also has a 50 percent zone start percentage, meaning he’s getting an equal amount of offensive and defensive zone starts.

By comparison every other defender not named Honka has a higher percentage of defensive zone starts than offensive ones, yet each is still posting a higher CF% than Oleksiak.

For some people that’s a bunch of statistical mumbo jumbo, so let’s add a visual to this.

Here is the Stars defense without Oleksiak, in this case blue is good and red is bad.

Here they are with Oleksiak on the ice.

Essentially opponents are getting to the front of the net and creating more chances with Oleksiak on the ice.

The Stars are doing a better job handling the loss of particular players.

Last season injuries derailed things and the team never recovered. This season the Stars haven’t panicked over injuries to Marc Methot and Martin Hanzal, and have had other players step into larger roles.

When it comes to health, I think the Stars actually need to be more patient with recovery times. There are times that players have been seemingly rushed back, Hanzal for example, and they played at less than 100 percent.

Let’s take Ben Bishop’s recent back injury for example.

Personally I’d like to see the Stars take a patient approach and give him off on Saturday, and give Kari Lehtonen back-to-back starts. Based off the Stars recent actions with injured players if Bishop is close, but not 100 percent, he’ll still be a lineup option.

Hanzal seems to be off to a slow start. After he comes back from injury, does anything need to change to get him back to his normal production, or is it only a matter of time?
– from T3hJohnson1 on Reddit.

Echoing sentiments from the last question, I think the Stars need to be patient with Hanzal. Actually take the time to let him get back to 100 percent, allow Radek Faksa to play a larger role while he is out and not rush an injured player.

Hanzal told me he’s only been truly healthy for four or five games this season, in my opinion they’ve been bringing him back too quickly and need to take a patient approach.

To answer the first part of your question, I believe only player in the organization is completely untouchable and that’s Jamie Benn.

There is a price for any other player on the roster, and if that price were met the Stars would be willing to make a deal.

As far as Radek Faksa goes, I feel confident he’s part of Jim Nill’s long-term plans. I may not agree with his usage at this point and the coaches may not be playing him enough, but he’s a player that I don’t see Nill parting with.

Why can’t the top line be Benn, Seguin, Spezza?
-from Paul_Allens_Face on Reddit.

The top line is likely going to be shuffled before Saturday’s game against the Vegas Golden Knights, so Jason Spezza could get that opportunity.

Personally I would like to see Radek Faksa on the top line, while I think Spezza should be reunited with Janmark long-term.

I don’t have an issue with the schedule and I believe it all balances out eventually.

St. Louis had it’s long Eastern Conference stretch early in the season, Dallas will make it’s trip to the northeastern United States next week.

For me the bigger thing is back-to-backs, and the Stars actually have a better schedule than the Blues.

Dallas has 11 back-to-backs this season, St. Louis has 16. I would prefer the Stars schedule.

The Pittsburgh Penguins may have the worst schedule this season with 19 back-to-backs.

First of all, congratulations to the Methot family. Jack Campbell Methot was born earlier this week, and both mom and baby are doing well.

Secondly, I have to admit I couldn’t help but chuckle a bit when I saw the name of the baby, and clearly others had similar thoughts based on the Twitter reaction.

But I’m going to defend the name.

Former Stars prospect Jack Campbell is actually one of the nicest human beings I ever met. During the 2013-14 season a military family visited the Texas Stars and got a tour of the locker room. The son in the family was having a hard time, his dad was about to be deployed, and it wasn’t an easy time for the family.

Campbell ended up giving the kid his personal lucky charm, his draft day hat he received when the Stars drafted him with the 11th overall pick in 2010.

So if Jack Campbell Methot has similar human qualities to Jack Campbell he’ll do pretty well in life.

That’s not a new trend, the Stars have seemingly struggled with back-up goalies for years.

I think you should have the same amount of points available in every game, so I’d be on board with a 3-2-1 system.

Three points for a win, two for an overtime/shootout win, one point for a loss in overtime/shootout. This would create an incentive for teams to actually go for a win late in the third period, especially in cross-conference games, instead of playing conservative and trying to bank a point.

Let’s go through the Stars’ pending UFA’s and figure out what happens to them: Roussel, McKenzie, Hamhuis, Pateryn, Lehtonen, McKenna, Bodnarchuk, Flynn, Regner.
–from DoctorBreakfast on Reddit.

Too early to get an exact answer, but if you wanted my gut decision at this moment it would go this way.

Return: Pateryn, Lehtonen, Regner,

Gone: Roussel, McKenzie, Hamhuis, McKenna, Flynn

Coinflip: McKenzie

I’ll expand a bit more in the next question.

It’s probably way too early to talk about the offseason, but what do you think will be done with Hamhuis? Will Miro come in? Also, what do you think the options are for backup goaltender?
— from Dr_Jackwagon on Reddit.

Dan Hamhuis likely won’t be back, he’ll probably sign somewhere else and because of a weaker class of free agents could get close to $3.5 million per season.

Miro Heiskanen will have a chance to win a job in NHL training camp, and I think he’ll prove that he’s ready for the NHL. There might be some growing pains, but he’ll be in a good spot as third-pairing left-handed defenseman behind Esa Lindell and Marc Methot.

Kari Lehtonen may be the best bet to return as the back-up goalie next season. Lehtonen and his family like Dallas, and he could be the viable stop gap on a short contract if Landon Bow isn’t ready for NHL duty next season.

What are your thoughts on McKenzie? His assist on Sunday was just beautiful.
-from Krye07 on Reddit.

He’s been relatively good and done what he’s been asked. He’s a good bottom-six forward that works hard, and when he adds the occasional point it’s a nice bonus.

Could look something like this:

Johnny Gaudreau — Auston Matthews — Patrick Kane
Anders Lee — Jack Eichel — Blake Wheeler
Chris Kreider — Dylan Larkin — Phil Kessel
Max Pacioretty — Vincent Trocheck — TJ Oshie

Ryan Suter — John Carlson
Zach Werenski — Seth Jones
Ryan McDonagh — Dustin Byfuglien

Jonathan Quick
John Gibson

As an American I hope so. Either way USA-Canada in the gold medal game is going to be fun to watch.

Do the yellow laces end after last game?
-from sangwinacher on Reddit.

Most of the team was still wearing them against St. Louis on Thursday. I think they should keep them, it’s a nice touch and could become an unofficial part of the uniform going forward.

Nothing at this moment.

Because of NHL rules only two players can get tossed out, once the second player is thrown out of the circle it’s face-off violation and a penalty.

Arturs Irbe.

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