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STARS MAILBAG: The great Klingberg debate, a trade proposal, and the Jedi order

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The mailbag is loaded this week, let’s get started…

For a quick clarification, the NHL doesn’t award the Norris Trophy. It’s voted on by the Pro Hockey Writer’s Association, and John Klingberg is still fighting a perception that he isn’t good defensively — which is untrue.

Klingberg also doesn’t play enough minutes for many voters (I am not a voter, for the record), who believe that a Norris-winning defensemen should be averaging closer to 26 or 27 minutes per game.

If that’s what it takes to win the Norris, the Stars are frankly better off without Klingberg being in the conversation.

The Stars system works best right now with a more-balanced defense when it comes to minutes, and with Klingberg averaging 23 minutes instead of 26, the Stars are actually saving close to 250 minutes of wear and tear over the course of an 82-game season on Klingberg. That’s the equivalent of 10 less games played compared to a player that is averaging something in the 26-minute range, meaning a slightly fresher and rested defenseman that could handle those big minutes in the playoffs.

This is going to sound hyperbolic, but Klingberg is one the most valuable players in the NHL.

Stop, please. Don’t cancel your subscription. I’m going to explain.

Klingberg has a cap hit for $4.25 million and that runs through the end of the 2021-22 season. That’s an incredible bargain for a defenseman leading the NHL in scoring, Norris recognition or not.

Of NHL defensemen on standard contracts, so excluding entry-level deals, making more than $1 million — essentially defenders in in a top-four pay grade and above — Klingberg has the lowest cost per point amongst defensemen in the NHL.

The Stars are essentially paying $98,837 per point for Klingberg. By comparison the Ottawa Senators are paying $216,667 per point for Erik Karlsson.

On the turnover point, when you have the puck more you lose it more. After the 2-1 shootout loss against the Columbus Blue Jackets, Klingberg has 50 giveaways in 1,080 minutes of play. That’s one turnover every 21.6 minutes, and he has a .86 point to turnover ratio.

By comparison Karlsson has 43 giveaways in in 37 games, and is averaging one every 22.69 minutes. He also .69 point to turnover ration.

I’m not saying Klingberg is better than Karlsson, but if the Senators defenseman is the NHL gold standard, Klingberg is performing pretty well.

So, no, there isn’t any chance the Stars trade Klingberg.

This isn’t going to happen. Erik Karlsson is a tremendous player, but I wouldn’t want to overpay for the post-prime years of Karlsson’s career both with the assets required in a trade and the money it would cost on his contract.

Esa Lindell deserves a lot of credit for his work this season. He’s turned into a top-pairing defenseman, limits his mistakes, and has turned into that long-term partner that John Klingberg needs to succeed.

If they gave out a role for “best supporting actor in a role as a defenseman” Lindell would be one of the finalists.

https://twitter.com/roseoftexas1/status/953809365361885184

It is a serious topic.

The Stars have to decide whether or not Tyler Seguin is worth close to $10 million per season. It’s a big investment and it’s going to take a contract that carries Seguin past the prime of his career — players start to hit a decline in their late 20s now, it’s a reality in the current NHL.

Jim Nill has echoed multiple times that his job is to make the Stars better “today, tomorrow, and in the future.” So does a massive contract, when you already have a massive contract with Jamie Benn, set up the franchise for sustained success?

It’s a serious discussion the Stars have to have this coming offseason.

It would be expensive, but I think it would be worth it.

Mark Stone is a point-per-game scorer on a bad Ottawa Senators team, can play in all three zones effectively, and will be a restricted free agent that the Stars could lock-up with a long-term deal.

I have two proposals, and my one request is that you read through my reasoning before making a knee jerk reaction.

Proposal one: Jason Dickinson and a second-round pick for Mark Stone.

Reasoning: The Senators are going into a rebuild, they’re looking for a future top-six center. The Stars say Jason Dickinson is a big part of the future, but center is a position of strength for Dallas. If they plan to re-sign Tyler Seguin, and Radek Faksa continues to progress, it makes sense to take from an area of of surplus to fill a need.

Remember when I asked you to read through the reasoning? Please keep that in mind now.

Proposal two: Julius Honka for Mark Stone.

Reasoning: I like Julius Honka, I think he could be a very good NHL player and his game fits with the future of the NHL. But, the Stars have a coach that looks at him differently, and assuming Greg Pateryn re-signs, Honka will once again be healthy scratch to start next season on the right side.

So if the Stars aren’t going to play Honka, they should maximize his value and bring in a piece that can actually help the team this season and fill a future need in Stone. You don’t want Honka to follow the same path that Jamie Oleksiak followed, eventually getting traded for a middling draft pick, when you can flip him for a top-six asset right now.

Let’s stick with Honka for a minute.

For starters, you have to throw out traditional advance stats (talk about an oxymoron, right?) when it comes to Ken Hitchcock. Hitchcock doesn’t care about Corsi or SAT, he has his own analytics package, and you can read more about that in this story, and by his metrics he’s happy without Honka in the lineup.

And has Honka rubbed the coaching staff the wrong way? No. He’s just a smaller defenseman still learning the defensive-side of the game, and that doesn’t fit well with the current plans of the coaches.

Andreas Athanasiou is a fun player to watch, and his speed is a weapon. He’s only 23 and an RFA after this season, so like Stone it would be a high-asking price.

It wouldn’t be as high of a cost, but it would likely cost high-level prospect, maybe Dickinson, and a later-round pick.

We’ve covered a couple so far with Hoffman and Athanasiou, another name that could be kicked around, but likely won’t be traded, is Patric Hörnqvist.

The asking price for Leon Draisitl would be way too high. He’s a 22-year-old with a recently-signed eight-year contract, it would require a king’s ransom or a like player, which the Stars aren’t willing to part with.

I waffled back-and-forth on this, and in the end my gut feeling is that Brett Ritchie will still be with the Stars after the trade deadline. Ritchie is available and the Stars wouldn’t have an issue involving him in a trade, but I believe other teams will have other younger players or prospects higher on there list for a potential deal.

I would make that deal, could be a fresh start for both players.

In the lead-up the draft the Stars have a master list built with roughly 50 names or so, this is what they use and essentially go best-available by their definition for the first two rounds.

It’s a similar approach to the third and fourth rounds, best available off a larger list. By the fifth round it becomes more of a situation where they are making picks based off individual scout opinions. Is there a particular player that a certain scout is pushing for, maybe a long-term project player? Those are the picks in the later rounds.

Stephen Johns is part of the long-term plan, he’s taken nice strides this season under Rick Wilson. I wrote a story earlier this week about Johns and his growing confidence, which you can read here.

I would like to see that, and I’ve actually asked Ken Hitchcock this question.

For Hitchcock, it’s too much responsibility for Faksa. Since Faksa and Tyler Pitlick take every other shift on on the penalty kill and play difficult minutes at five-on-five, Hitchcock doesn’t want to overload Faksa with responsibility.

Personally, I’d like to see him on one of the power play units as the net-front presence.

Devin Shore has had a depreciating season. He started off with a nice opportunity and has just now started to drop in the lineup. I do think he’ll be back part of the team next season, but hopefully it’s in a more appropriate role off the bat.

Stephen Johns is trending in the right direction, while you’d like a dramatic shift in Jason Spezza’s game and overall production.

On the negative side, Ben Bishop has had some rough outings lately with bad goals against at bad times.

(Editor’s note: I wrote this on Thursday during the day before he made his glove save late in the third period against Columbus).

Maybe in two seasons. Next season we should see Valeri Nichushkin and Alexander Radulov on the same team, while Denis Gurianov could be a full-time NHL player in two seasons.

I did not dig into the numbers historically, yet. I want to see what it looks like at the All-Star break, and I’ll have more time do so around that time.

However, from a snap reaction standpoint, you could make a case it’s one of the more difficult divisions in NHL history because of the playoff format. There may have been better divisions top-to-bottom in the past, but they didn’t come with the caveat that only a certain amount of teams from each division could reach the playoffs.

The Stars are pretty happy with the green jerseys. It’s a relatively unique color in the NHL, it stands out on a broadcast.

That’s the role I’d like to see Jason Dickinson in. If given the chance I believe he could play a top-six spot and with a bit of confidence from the coaching staff could quickly grow into the role. Devin Shore and Brett Ritchie have been given top-six chances, why not Dickinson?

or….

I would rather play Vegas and try to go through the Pacific Division with the Stars track record against the Central Division.

Radulov gets more ice time than Roussel, so Radulov.

In that situation the defenseman would be credited with a blocked shot.

Don’t know about his sleeping or eating habits, but Ully is playing well with the Idaho Steelheads in the ECHL.

Russia is the easy choice, so I’ll go with the Americans.

So there is a Jedi council consisting of Ken Hitchcock, Rick Wilson, Marc Methot, and Dan Hamhuis. They believe in the old ways, traditional values, and the old codes.

Members of the council rarely have a padawan, but Hamhuis has taken Greg Pateryn under his wing and the council sees a model of their traditional order. Pateryn represents all that was good in the past, and what will be good again. They see similar things in Esa Lindell.

John Klingberg is the most talented of the Jedi, but also the most misunderstood. He won’t get a seat on the council, he’s too innovative and some would say risky, but his connection with the force is undeniable.

Stephen Johns is also a bit of a wildcard. He’s still learning the ways of the force, but he’s reckless at times, and needs to learn to channel it.

And then there is Julius Honka, who has one of the highest midichlorian counts ever recorded, but he doesn’t fit the typical Jedi mold. He’s dangerous, but has immense power, how does it fit in the Jedi order?

Jedi are supposed to worry about protecting, but Honka goes on the offensive, he tries to eliminate the opponent before it eliminates him. Could it work? Sure, but it’s not the way things have been done in the past.

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Comments

  2. I wish I was more versed in Star Wars to better appreciate the work in that last answer but I feel like it was pretty solid regardless.

    Locking up Seguin seems like a no-brainer but you make some good points about how that might conflict with Nill’s vision. As a fan who lives for the Benn/Seguin duo, I hope he can find a way to keep him here indefinitely.

  3. Very recent subscriber, first time mailbag reader. I was already pleased with my $4 decision but that last question and response is some Very Good Content.

    I fully expect Dallas Stars Wars crossover fanfic to start making its way into the rotation here.

  4. I think that Dickinson and a 2nd for Stone would a massive steal for Mark Stone, which is why I can’t see it happening. Since Stone still has RFA years and is a complete 200-foot player, he’s going to command a higher price than say Evander Kane. If I’m Ottawa, I’m asking for one of Hintz/Nichushkin, a conditional 2nd (turns to 1st if Dallas makes WCF and Stone is half of the games), and then maybe a 3rd or a couple of those extra 4th rounders the Stars have stockpiled.

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