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STARS MAILBAG: Hockey in Houston? Lineups? And is it time to panic?

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Reports surfaced this week that Houston could be a future destination for an NHL franchise.

Houston Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta has recently met with the NHL to discuss bringing a second team to Texas, and after the former owner — Les Alexander — essentially killed off hockey in Houston, there is hope amongst hockey fans in the United States’ fourth-largest city.

It’s a move that would make sense on a couple fronts. Houston has the infrastructure and corporate setting for financial sustainability, while the Houston Aeros were frequently amongst the AHL’s top teams in attendance before moving to Iowa in 2013.

It would also create a natural rivalry, and the first real sustainable one, for the Dallas Stars.

While the Stars have had a couple playoff-based rivalries and nastiness in franchise history, the organization hasn’t had a true rivalry since the Minnesota North Stars and Chicago Blackhawks locked horns in the 1980s.

It’s something to keep an eye on, and having a second NHL team could help rise the tide for hockey across the state.

Let’s get started with the mailbag….

Two weeks ago I was asked if it was time to panic. At that point I said to hold off, be patient, and let’s address it in the Nov. 17 Mailbag.

Well, the Nov. 17 mailbag is here and the Stars are going to play their 20th game of the season on Saturday.

And after factoring in all the results, looking at their play, and trying to decipher the first 19 games, you have my permission to hit the panic button.

Not the big red button, the one that leads to chest pain and sweating, but the middle button. The one that leads to an uneasy feeling and leaves a bit of a pit in your stomach.

Because right now the Dallas Stars are not a good hockey team. They aren’t buried, and are actually still in the playoff hunt, but after 19 games they’ve proven they can’t win away from home and the lack of depth scoring has gone from an excuse to a major issue.

Worst part about this? The schedule is going to get tougher. Even with a 6-1 loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday, in my opinion the best team in the NHL right now, the Stars strength of schedule ranks 28th amongst 31 teams. The Stars aren’t just struggling to reach .500, they are doing so against bad competition.

According to a simulation model at MoneyPuck, the Stars only have a 30.43 percent chance to make the playoffs and are projected to finish with 86 points.

So, yes, you can panic.

But, keep an optimistic view that this team still has time to turn it around and take solace in the fact the Stars will likely still be in the playoff picture on Thanksgiving.

As I answered in the prior question, a level of panic is acceptable right now thanks to the trends that have been established through 19 games.

If you go back to last season, in the past 101 games the Dallas Stars have been an average team at best. If they were a .500 team and extremely unlucky, or dealing with injuries like last season, it would be somewhat acceptable.

Tacking on a positive note, the Stars could turn this adverse moment into the building block of a playoff run. They could be one of the NHL’s best teams over the next 63 games. Maybe something will click in the upcoming stretch of games, and maybe they’ll find their game on the road.

Also, I don’t have any problem with impatient fans. I enjoy the conversation and interaction with all fans.

Comment from discussion Stars Mailbag, submit your questions.

The good news is the rest of the Western Conference has also been somewhat average this season.

Thanks to that development and with a twinge of optimism, I think the Stars will still be in the hunt for a wild card spot.

I think there is potential for that push, but I think it’s going come down to someone else stepping up and joining that leadership group by example.

Maybe it’s Jason Spezza, maybe it’s Martin Hanzal. Perhaps Radek Faksa can build on his goal against Tampa Bay. Essentially it’s going to take someone you wouldn’t expect stepping up with their play, and sending a message to the rest of the team that mediocrity isn’t acceptable.

Comment from discussion Stars Mailbag, submit your questions.

It’s a combination of all those things.

You weren’t wrong to hope and assume the team would be better, the Stars made moves to be better this season and the feeling — both internally and externally — was that they would be contender again.

Almost everyone got swept up in the offseason moves, Dallas was supposed to be a better team.

Miro Heiskanen is not coming over to the NHL this season.

If the Stars wanted to bring Heiskanen over they would have to do it before December 1, but at this moment that’s not a move they’re looking into. The plan is for Heiskanen to play the rest of the season in Finland, play at the World Junior Championships, play in the Olympics, maybe make an AHL cameo after his Liiga season, and then play for Finland at the IIHF World Championships.

I don’t have a good answer to the first part of your question, because I haven’t seen what Ken Hitchcock has liked about Jamie Oleksiak’s game since the first day of training camp.

Marc Methot’s injury created an imbalance on the defense and forced the Stars to pair John Klingberg back with Esa Lindell, in doing so the Stars created a defense where there two puck-moving defenders were on the ice at the same time.

The bottom four group that’s played the past three games, Dan Hamhuis with Greg Pateryn and Jamie Oleksiak with Stephen Johns, has struggled to carry the puck out of their own end and failed to sustain possession when they have escaped the defensive zone.

If Methot is back in the lineup on Saturday he’d ideally play with Klingberg, allowing the Stars to have at least two pairs with a puck-moving defender that doesn’t defer to his partner. If they were to call-up Honka, which still doesn’t seem likely at this point, they would have three pairs with a clear hierarchy when it comes to puck movement.

Likely in a late-season AHL game with the Texas Stars. The Texas Stars have six home games between April 6 and 14 at the end of the regular season, so that could be the ideal window.

Losing doesn’t help a future re-signing of Tyler Seguin, so missing the playoffs this season could put a sour taste in his mouth.

Look at it from Seguin’s perspective, he’s going to be 27 when he enters free agency and he’s made it abundantly clear that he wants to win another Stanley Cup before his career ends. If the Stars are a middle of the pack team that misses the playoffs more often than not, I could easily see him looking for greener pastures.

If I were setting the lineup for Saturday, and remember I’m the coach not the GM (so I don’t have control of recalling Honka) this would be my lineup vs the Oilers:

Jamie Benn — Tyler Seguin — Alexander Radulov
Mattias Janmark — Jason Spezza — Devin Shore
Gemel Smith — Radek Faksa — Brett Ritchie
Remi Elie — Martin Hanzal — Tyler Pitlick

Marc Methot — John Klingberg
Esa Lindell — Stephen Johns
Dan Hamhuis — Greg Pateryn

Kari Lehtonen
Ben Bishop

Scratches: Antoine Roussel, Jamie Oleksiak

Comment from discussion Stars Mailbag, submit your questions.

I agree with you, I think Jason Spezza should be playing center. He’s getting $7.5 million this season and next to be a top-six center, and I think if deployed correctly he could still fill that role.

There are moments and flashes of Spezza’s game that show up here and there, including one play against Tampa Bay last night where he drove the net and drew a penalty.

Whatever he’s been doing, it’s not working right now.

Comment from discussion Stars Mailbag, submit your questions.

The defense hasn’t helped, but Ben Bishop has looked average recently.

If you take away his 14-save shutout against the New York Islanders, Bishop has allowed at least three goals in his past four starts and hasn’t posted a save percentage above .900 in the month of November.

Goaltending isn’t the biggest issue, but the Stars need more from their goalies now.

https://twitter.com/creeprcult/status/930931540850290688

Added chemistry would be ideal. I think in-game adjustments are important, but if something is working (for example Jason Spezza and Mattias Janmark together earlier in the season) you should leave it be.

In addition, there are some line combinations that I think would have produced a bit more if they had been given more opportunity to work together.

A trade for depth scoring is the most likely thing, I don’t see the Stars making any moves on defense.

Personally I thought Cam Atkinson could be a good fit here, but he recently got a lengthy extension with the Columbus Blue Jackets so that isn’t an option.

I believe that Jim Nill is in good standing, even if the team misses the playoff this season. He would certainly enter the following season on the hot seat, but I think there is a combination of confidence and patience from ownership that Nill is the right person for the job.

If the Stars miss the playoffs I don’t think Ken Hitchcock would be back next season. He’s not here for a rebuild and whether it’s his decision or the team’s decision, I think the situation would naturally lead to Hitchcock stepping into a front-office or advisory role within the organization.

I believe the only way Hitchcock would be gone mid-season is if he decided he had enough. The Stars don’t have head coach in waiting, and I don’t see Jim Nill pulling the trigger on firing him at any point mid-season.

In a way the AHL captaincy can be seen as the “kiss of death” to your NHL chances for that season. AHL captains are typically veteran players and often fit the mold of a “4A player” that can’t break through and reach the NHL.

Some AHL teams intentionally given the captaincy to a top prospect, but Texas has followed more of the norm and the past full-time captains have included veterans like Maxime Fortunus and Travis Morin.

While it’s an honor for McKenzie in the AHL, recent events indicate he likely won’t play an NHL game this season. He’s below too many players on the depth chart, and when McKenzie was recalled Ken Hitchcock almost went out of his way in an interview to point out how players that aren’t particularly fast wouldn’t succeed in his bottom-six.

There are certainly players worse than McKenzie in the NHL right now. So he’s going to have an interesting decision to make next summer as an unrestricted free agent, because his best chance at a playing in the NHL will likely be i another organization.

Since you former favorite player was Patrick Eaves we’ll try and find someone comparable.

Eaves was a bit of a reclamation project, a player that needed a fresh start and found it in Dallas. He was also a good family man and had impeccable facial hair.

With that in mind, I would suggest picking Martin Hanzal as your new favorite player. The results on the ice might be discouraging at this point, but he’s a decent human being, is a good family man, and is growing a decent beard. The Stars also have him under contract for three more seasons, so when he turns it around you can label him a reclamation project.

Antti Niemi is the worst signing, but the Martin Hanzal signing hasn’t looked good through the first 19 games.

Both good choices, both decent human beings. Can’t go wrong either way.

I believe I have one of the best jobs in the world. I spend most of my time at a hockey rink, I get to write, and I watch a ton of hockey.

Essentially my life is a vacation, and I realize I’m very lucky that it worked out that way.

Team issue, it won’t be made public.

Comment from discussion Stars Mailbag, submit your questions.

Julius Honka’s lack of production is frustrating, he doesn’t have a point in 13 games between two leagues and you can tell that he’s frustrated.

Personally I think he has a better chance at success getting an opportunity to play a sheltered role in the NHL, grow his confidence, and be allowed to learn with his mistakes instead of being overly punished for them.

I thought Jason Dickinson had an ok call-up. He had a couple opportunities he failed to take advantage of, and I think he’s still figuring out how to adapt his game to the NHL.

I give Ben Bishop a “B” grade for his play this season.

The Vegas Golden Knights are as unlucky with goalies health as it has been lucky in their play. I still think Vegas will come back to early, but through 20 games they’ve answered every question thrown their way — even if I think their general manager has botched a couple key situations.

It also comes down to coaching, I think Gerard Gallant is a very good coach and is the favorite for NHL Coach of the Year at this moment.

Comment from discussion Stars Mailbag, submit your questions.

February 29, 2012 was a pretty good date. That’s the day I married my wife.

What? The Ludwig Bystrom for Reece Scarlett minor-league deal didn’t move the needle enough?

I will look into this, I have not noticed it before.

There are still 63 games remaining, so there is time for a 63-game win streak.

I don’t think you’d get very far with bribery.

Comment from discussion Stars Mailbag, submit your questions.

An average hockey team.

Victor E. Green

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