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STARS MAILBAG: Is it time to panic?

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Before we get into the mailbag, I wanted to gauge interest on an idea I had while working on my book 100 Things Stars Fans Should Know & Do Before They Die.

Would you be interested in having your favorite Stars story or memory published?

This could be a memory of your favorite player or favorite game. It could be the quick synopsis of how you became a Stars fan. It could be something serious it could be something goofy, what’s your favorite part of being a a fan of this team?

If there are enough interested fans, I’d like to include this collection of stories as either a stand-alone chapter or as a potential sidebar that gets used throughout the book.

If you are interested please send me a direct message on Twitter (DMs are open) or send me an email at sean.c.shapiro (AT) Gmail.com

Anyways, let’s get started with the mailbag:

You can be concerned after the 5-2 loss to the Winnipeg Jets, but I wouldn’t suggest panicking at this point.

We are entering a seven-game stretch where we will find out if the Dallas Stars are actually a good hockey team. Good hockey teams, the ones that are playing into June, respond well to adversity and figure it out. I would classify a 2-3 road trip and a no-show performance against the Jets as adversity.

If they don’t respond to adversity or continue be a middling to average team two weeks from now, then I give you permission to panic — so ask me again for the Nov. 17 mailbag. At that point the Stars will have played 20 games and we can make a proper decision to hit the panic button or not.

It’s an interesting dynamic. Teams need to win now, while they also need to put themselves in the best position to win later in the season.

In my opinion Julius Honka would make the lineup better right now, and as he grows with the the game he’d made the Stars better down the road. Sure he’d be playing a sheltered role right now, but he adds an offensive dynamic that the Stars could really use and Honka could potentially boost depth scoring.

Not very well. The top line can only carry the Stars so far.

Something has to be figured out with depth scoring sooner or later, because the teams still contending into May and June are often getting contributions from the entire lineup.

Even with a rough game against the Winnipeg Jets, Greg Pateryn has acquitted himself well. However, I don’t think he’s much more than a seventh defender and a solid teammate.

Pateryn is the type of player that should be used in case of injury and in back-to-backs, but not on an every-night basis and he shouldn’t be leading the team in ice time.

Pateryn also doesn’t bring anything extra to the table — he’s not particularly fast or creative with the puck, and he plays a simple game. Once again, he has all the makings of the ideal seventh defender.

The Martin Hanzal signing isn’t looking very good at this moment. He’s been dealing with injuries, hasn’t played very well, and his only point is an empty-net goal.

On top of that his addition may have limited Radek Faksa’s ability to grow into a true defensive center.

With the three-year nature of his contract, Hanzal could turn into the NHL’s worst free agent signing from 2017 if trends don’t reverse once he returns from injury.

(For the record, the worst signing was the Pittsburgh Penguins bringing in Antti Niemi. The Florida Panthers did the Penguins a favor when the claimed the goalie on waivers.)

There were some head-scratching moments, but I don’t think the officiating impacted the result. Winnipeg was clearly the better team and Dallas was sleep walking for much of the game.

I’m not sure how sustainable his success is, but Mike Smith has been a key for the Calgary Flames.

There are so many moving parts, and this is two seasons away, but we’ll give it a try:

Jamie Benn — Tyler Seguin — Alexander Radulov
Mattias Janmark — Roope Hintz — Valeri Nichushkin
Jason Dickinson — Radek Faksa — Denis Gurianov
Devin Shore — Martin Hanzal — Tyler Pitlick/Remi Elie

Esa Lindell — John Klingberg
Miro Heiskanen — Julius Honka
Gavin Bayreuther — Stephen Johns

Ben Bishop

I believe that corsi and shot-based metrics are a good indicator a player’s success, but they aren’t the only tool and can’t be solely relied upon.

When I’m looking at a player’s possession numbers I’m also looking at how they’ve been used in the game. For example, certain players are asked to play in more difficult situations and often start most of their shifts in the defensive or neutral zone. On the flip side there are other players that are either sheltered or used simply for offensive purposes, those players are expected to have a higher corsi showing.

So I believe it’s a valuable tool, and it’s one that I track during games, but I think it’s also a stat that needs to be used with context and needs to be cross-checked with the eye test from time-to-time.

https://twitter.com/slopstock/status/925769828094431233

I don’t think it’s the best stat, but I also think it gets a bit of a bad rap. Essentially corsi and other possession metrics are a more advanced plus-minus, so completely trashing plus-minus isn’t worth the effort.

Right now it’s Mattias Janmark, and that’s it.

Sure I could throw out names of other depth players that need to score. But unfortunately for the Stars they don’t have a group of depth players that are generating chances. You’d hope one of the veterans (Jason Spezza or Martin Hanzal) figure something out sooner than later, but they’ve yet to be anything close to an offensive threat at even strength.

Comment from discussion Mailbag, a call for questions.

For Saturday’s game against the Buffalo Sabres this would be my lines for the first period, and I’m assuming Martin Hanzal and Brett Ritchie are both hurt.

Benn-Seguin-Radulov
Janmark-Spezza-Shore
Elie-Faksa-Roussel
Smith-Dickinson-Pitlick

I would then look at the performance after 20 minutes, and then consider switching Shore and Radulov to star the second period. I don’t know what would work, but I’d keep an open mind.

The GM question actually has a simple answer. I’d make a decision on my defense and take it out of the hands of the coaching staff by making a trade or waiving a player.

Comment from discussion Mailbag, a call for questions.

Yes and no.

Spezza will score again, and Radulov’s goal streak will come to an end at some point.

The idea was too eliminate cheating on face-offs. Players using their feet, dropping to one knee to win the draw, or ramming their opponent with their head — basically the NHL felt like they had a lacrosse face-off and overly corrected the issue.

In the playoffs you need depth scoring and five-on-five production, the Stars aren’t getting either of those. So, no, they aren’t checking the playoff boxes at this moment.

Comment from discussion Mailbag, a call for questions.

A bit of everything. Chemistry is still lacking on a couple lines, while there needs to be a bit more buy-in on a nightly basis — there were too many lax efforts on the recent road trip.

Comment from discussion Mailbag, a call for questions.

Hitch is a line juggler. He’s going to juggle all season.

Problem is that it isn’t a back-and-white situation.

I believe that Stars management wants Julius Honka to become a bona-fide top-four defender, Ken Hitchcock and the coaching staff also want that as well. Problem is neither party is willing to force the issue.

The coaches could have done that and decided to let Honka play through mistakes and lock him in on the third pairing. Jim Nill could have forced the issue by not carrying eight defenders into training camp, and parting with Jamie Oleksiak and Patrik Nemeth in the off-season — essentially guaranteeing Honka would have a top-six role and taking the decision away from the coach.

Both.

Way too early for that. Jamie Benn is under contract through the 2024-25 season and with his no-movement clause he could outlast all of the younger players currently on the roster.

Devin Shore and Jason Dickinson both seem like future leaders, but in all likelihood the Stars next captain isn’t on the current roster.

Essentially the coaching staff looks at both Jamie Oleksiak and Brett Ritchie as high-potential players getting close to a breakthrough. I’m not defending the logic, I’m just trying to explain their point of view.

Comment from discussion Mailbag, a call for questions.

Esa Lindell actually brings some nice flexibility to the defensive options now. He can play with John Klingberg, Julius Honka, or Stephen Johns.

Long-term I’d like to see Lindell with Honka or Klingberg since I believe he has potential to be a long-term top-four defender in Dallas.

Honka played his first AHL game of the season with the Texas Stars on Thursday and he didn’t overly standout. There were a couple good plays here and there, but he didn’t look like a dominant player that is supposed to be in the NHL lineup.

It was his first game in over a week, so there could have been some rust he had to knock off. Ideally he’ll embrace the opportunity in his next AHL game and look like a player that can be dominant in all three zones.

Going hard to the net. Look at the fluky goal the Jets scored on Thursday when the puck bounced up and eluded Ben Bishop — that only happens because Winnipeg is making a concentrated effort to get to the crease.

The Stars need to do more of that. Even in the games where the Stars outwork there opponent, they aren’t winning those final battles and truly making life difficult by crashing the net and annoying the opposing goalie.

https://twitter.com/keIenkeIIer38/status/925771430448582658

I’m a bit handcuffed by this question since I don’t travel (at least not yet) and haven’t been in the locker room in more than two weeks. I’ll have a better answer to this question once the team returns home for practice today.

Roope Hintz has impressed me the most in Cedar Park. He may not be the Texas Stars best player, but he continues to get better with each viewing and I think he could be a solid NHL option next season. Dillon Heatherington has also made some nice strides this season and if there were an injury bug that hit the NHL defenders he would be a viable call-up option.

For your second question, I think Miro Heiskanen can play in the NHL next season, but it would likely be similar to what John Klingberg did at the start of his North American career. Start in the AHL, get about a dozen games under his belt, and then potentially be ready for the NHL.

You have my blessing to riot only if the following happens:

Julius Honka isn’t in the NHL, he is so outraged that he buys his own plane ticket to Dallas, skips out on his AHL assignment, and storms the AAC with a megaphone and a torch.

If that happens, you are free to riot and join Julius in his quest. Otherwise your riot would just look silly, especially after you didn’t riot to get Gemel Smith or Remi Elie or Jason Dickinson into the lineup sooner.

See the prior answer.

Comment from discussion Mailbag, a call for questions.

It couldn’t hurt for John Klingberg to put on a bit more muscle, but it’s not something I’m overly concerned about. On the list of concerns for this season, Klingberg isn’t even in the top half of the list.

And no you’re not crazy, you are simply reacting to the disappointing start to Jason Spezza’s season.

You answered your own question, he’s only struggling a little. So don’t panic.

Also, Oettinger’s struggles are numbers-based. Having watched video from a couple of his recent games I wouldn’t be concerned.

Comment from discussion Mailbag, a call for questions.

He’s more relaxed and isn’t afraid to be a real human being in the locker room. On a game day before the Stars road trip we discussed college football rankings.

I believe that goes into his calm demeanor on the ice. He knows how to turn hockey on and off in his brain, and mentally that’s a healthy way to handle a highly-stressful position.

Comment from discussion Mailbag, a call for questions.

Unlikely because of the nature of his contract, but as we addressed last week some GM is going to miss out on Matt Duchene and could get desperate for a center with big-name appeal.

Actually showing up with energy from the start of the game.

Sorry, you’re going to get frustrated. But it will make successes feel that much better — that’s life as a sports fan.

(I’m a New York Mets fan, I can tell you all about frustration.)

Crunchy.

Congratulations.

Comment from discussion Mailbag, a call for questions.

Don’t have a favorite character because I didn’t really watch the show. For whatever reason, Rugrats never ended up on the list of cartoons I watched frequently as a kid.

If you shower each day you can fix that issue.

Comment from discussion Mailbag, a call for questions.

Do something nice for your neighbor. Volunteer at a soup kitchen. Call your parents and ask them how their day is going, that will put a smile on their face.

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