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STARS MAILBAG: Shootouts, home and away goalies, and an update on Nichushkin

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No one asked about Valeri Nichushkin this week.

Nichushkin has been a hot topic in past mailbags, and today I actually have a good answer.

So, and I can’t believe I’m doing this, I will pose the question myself:

Any update on Val?

Yes.

After talking to several people, some in Dallas and some not, over the past couple weeks I would feel confident enough to pencil in Nichushkin as a member of the Stars for the 2018-19 season.

From my understanding the Russian forward has full intention to return next season, there has been recent dialogue with the Stars, and there was at least an inquiry earlier in the summer by Nichushkin about what it would take to come back for the 2017-18 season.

In the past I was a bit hesitant to call it a lock, and frankly I wouldn’t have been surprised if he spent several years in the KHL before returning to the NHL. So this is a step in the right direction, and Nichushkin could provide a nice boost during the 2018-19 season.

Ok, let’s dive into your questions…

The Stars likely aren’t trading Martin Hanzal for a couple reasons.

First, Hanzal has a full no-movement clause this season, so he has full control of the situation (starting next season Hanzal has a 15-team no-trade list). Even if the Stars could trade him without permission, Hanzal would be extremely difficult to move.

Hanzal still has two years left on his contract at $4.75 million, and there aren’t many teams willing to give up two years of that cap space to a 31-year-old, especially with teams already positioning themselves for the loaded 2019 free agency class.

Hanzal is likely going to finish that three-year contract with Dallas, and if he doesn’t it’s more likely that it would end in a buyout than a trade.

It seems that each time a question like this comes up Jamie Benn responds with a decent game or two, and then we say, “Oh look, Jamie Benn is back.”

The thing Benn hasn’t been able to do is consistently hit that so-called “beast mode” for longer stretches of time. It’s been up-and-down, and the downs have been lower than you’d expect.

So for the umpteenth time: let’s see if he can build on that game against the Islanders and see what happens against New Jersey and Philadelphia this weekend.

Best case scenario, the Stars are trading for a veteran top-six winger available as a rental, problem is there aren’t many available right now with so many teams still in the hunt.

If the Stars were to fall fat on their face I could see them selling off Antoine Roussel at the deadline.

Here are the highlights from that shootout, including Jason Spezza’s game-winning goal against Ondrej Pavelec.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SEIkw43ewn8

I see your point about a tired goalie, and Pavelec had been extremely busy that game, but I still think it’s more of a goalie-by-goalie basis.

Both Alexander Radulov and Spezza scored on dekes to the stick side against Pavelec, and I think it was a noticed flaw in the goalie’s approach. In each situation Pavelec dropped his right shoulder early, opening up extra space on the stick side, and while they came in at different speeds (Radulov with a stumble, Spezza with pace) both players seemingly came with a plan to exploit that area.

Let’s look at the Stars two goalies, since I spend more time watching them than any other NHL goalies.

Ben Bishop is a very patient goalie in shootouts, he starts on the top of his crease, doesn’t have many extra movements and basically takes advantage of his 6-foot-7 frame. He basically dares the shooter to come in close, because as the gap closes the shooter continues to lose an ideal shooting angle, and Bishop is quick enough to the posts for the late deke.

When Bishop does bite on a deke, he does an extremely good job of using his length to get something in the way of the shot.

If there is a flaw in Bishop’s shootout approach, it’s the quick shot to the five-hole. The goalie is very active with his stick, he’ll start to buy the fake with his stick first, opening up an opportunity on the ice. Like Brandon Pirri does here:

Lehtonen on the other hand almost dares the shooter to go five-hole, and it has middling results. If you look at Lehtonen during a shootout, his stick often isn’t flat on the ice, it’s often just the heel on the ice. On one hand, this looks like a bigger hole tempting a shot as opposed to a deke, but it’s also been proven as weakness as Lehtonen sometimes doesn’t get the pads and stick together in time.

This video from practice is a good representation of Lehtonen’s stick position in a shootout:

Essentially if I were game planning my shooters against Dallas, I would tell them to look for the quick five-hole shot against Bishop or Lehtonen after a quick forehand or backhand stickhandle the slot.

The pieces are in place, the Stars just need to be a mentally tougher team. For whatever reason, they haven’t responded to adversity against those top-three teams in the Central Division.

Whether it’s on the players or the coaches, someone needs to figure out what makes the team tick and put that into motion in those Central Division battles.

The numbers oddly seem to be lining up that way.

Kari Lehtonen is 4-3-1 with a .923 save percentage and 2.09 goals against average on the road, while he has is 1-1-0 with a .882 save percentage and 3.66 goals against average at home. Ben Bishop is 4-6-0 with a .885 SV% and 3.55 GAA on the road, while at home he is 9-3-0 with a .931 SV% and 2.03 GAA.

It’s not going to be a defined road-home split, but the Stars are going to need both of their goalies. And with a more refined hierarchy — Bishop as the starter, Lehtonen as back-up — the Stars may have actually stumbled upon the true 1A-1B setup that they had hoped for with Lehtonen and Antti Niemi.

I think there is value in both goalies knowing their role, while Lehtonen has the chance to steal the occasional extra start and push Bishop.

Ken Hitchcock has a rough history with goalies, some have thrived — Ed Belfour in the late 1990s — and others have struggled — Jake Allen last season.

I’m not too concerned about Hitchcock’s relationship with Ben Bishop. Bishop isn’t mentally fragile and in the end I think he knows he’ll be starter for Game 1 of the playoffs, if the Stars make the playoffs.

He’s kind of already done that, Julius Honka is going to play in his third straight game against the New Jersey Devils on Friday.

There have been some mistakes in defensive development, but there have also been successes. John Klingberg seems like a developmental, home-grown success. So is Esa Lindell.

I’m also not going to defend how the Stars have handled Julius Honka. He should have played the final 25 games last season after the Stars effectively waved a white flag as sellers at the trade deadline. Honka should have been allowed play big minutes, kill penalties, and learn from his mistakes in what really was a lost season.

That being said, Honka’s career isn’t lost — far from it. I, like Stars management, still see him as a big part of team’s future.

This is a two-part answer, because I don’t mind using Julius Honka as a change-of-pace, 15-minute-per-night defenseman this season.

In fact, that might actually be his best role at this moment. With stability on the other pairs, the Stars can use Honka as a luxury piece that can still impact the game offensively in more limited minutes.

I do think he should have gotten more ice time when the Stars had a large lead against the New York Islanders. The Stars can be more cautious in closer games, especially with wins at a premium in the Central Division, but when they have a cushion like they did in Brooklyn they should let Honka rack up big minutes in the third and learn how to play in all situations.

Essentially the coaches treated a big third-period lead like a close game, while it could have been used as an incubator for Honka’s overall game.

This is a tough decision, because I think it comes down to a choice between Stephen Johns and Julius Honka.

I would keep these pairings together:

Esa Lindell — John Klingberg
Dan Hamhuis — Greg Pateryn

I would then pair Marc Methot with Johns or Honka. Ideally I want both Johns and Honka in the lineup, and that’s what I’d like to see longterm. But in the short term the Stars a better team with Hamhuis and Pateryn together, the Stars need that defensive pairing right now to open other opportunities for Lindell and Klingberg.

Therefore I would play Honka over Johns. Honka brings more offensively than Johns, and playing with Methot as a safety net would allow Honka to grow into a larger defensive role.

Ideally it would look something like this:

Esa Lindell — John Klingerg
Miro Heiskanen — Julius Honka
Gavin Bayreuther — Stephen Johns

This is dependent on a couple things:

– Bayreuther needs to take a major step defensively in the next 18 months.
– The Stars need either Johns or Honka to surpass Greg Pateryn on the defensive depth chart in Ken Hitchcock’s mind.

If those things don’t pan out, I could see Dillon Heatherington on that third pair. I also could see the Stars re-signing Pateryn and keeping him as the veteran presence in that group.

On Shea Weber, his cap hit doesn’t make any sense for the Stars and I don’t see why they would make that trade. I think Montreal is stuck with Weber until they decide to buy him out or he retires — he is still under contract until 2026.

Esa Lindell has inarguably been one of the Stars’ best defensemen. He’s been somewhat forced into a top pairing role in Dallas. With Heiskanen and Honka (hopefully) coming up through the system, it looks like his time on the top pairing may be numbered. So is Esa Lindell a legitimate top pairing defenseman in the NHL, or is he only there as a victim of circumstance and the lack of defensive depth in Dallas?
–from DoctorBreakfast on Reddit

Good follow up to the last question. I think Esa Lindell can be a top-pairing defenseman in the NHL, and he may have been put in that role earlier than needed, but in the long-run it’s the right fit for Lindell.

Long-term, I’d like to see Lindell-Klingberg as the top pairing through the 2019-20 season, while hopefully heading into the 2020-21 season Miro Heiskanen and Julius Honka have stepped into that top spot, turning Lindell and Klingberg into a tremendous 1B pairing.

In my opinion it would probably be best if the Stars and Jamie Oleksiak parted ways.

Frankly, I thought Patrik Nemeth was a better defensive option than Oleksiak going into this season, and if you had just flipped their draft position, Oleksiak probably would have been the one waived instead of Nemeth.

Ideally the Stars could find a trade for Oleksiak, because if they don’t he’ll still be around next season. Oleksiak will be a restricted free agent and Jim Nill isn’t going to let an asset walk for nothing.

I’ve liked what I’ve seen from Dillon Heatherington. I think he could play in the NHL tomorrow in a limited role (12 to 14 minutes) and he plays with a physical edge. I’m just not sure how high of a ceiling he has.

It’s been a lack of consistency and he’s been invisible at times. Hopefully I’ll have a better answer after taking a trip to Cedar Park this weekend.

It should. When things aren’t working, and they weren’t during the three-game losing streak, you need to shuffle things and see what works best.

Brett Ritchie just needs to finish. That’s a frustratingly boring answer, but it really boils down to the fact he’s not making the most of his opportunities.

It’s a good question. Here’s a better question, why hasn’t Stu Barnes become a social media target like Curt Fraser was last season?

Special teams–What’s going on there? We went from having the one of the best PK in the league, and one of the best PP in the league, to being really mediocre on both. PK isn’t even top 10 anymore.
On the flip side, I’m glad that our 5v5 play as improved significantly.
–from ErosXero on Reddit.

Ok, I’ll answer this question seriously now.

Before this road trip the penalty kill was getting overworked, I think that lack of discipline simply put too much pressure on the penalty kill and dragged down the success rate.

The power play is more of a mystery. But I think things would start trending in the right direction if the Stars did a better job crashing the net and creating more cliched “dirty goals” with the man advantage.

I’d also like to see them give Radek Faksa some power play time, I’m not sure why Brett Ritchie is still on the man advantage.

Hey Sean,
Which prospect do you think will be the next to have the biggest impact in Dallas in the next 1-3 yrs?
–from MiniSodaMiracleMan on Reddit.

Obvious answer is Miro Heiskanen, but I’ll go with the other highly-touted Finn, Roope Hintz, as my second choice.

In no particular order, I think both Max Domi and the Nylander brothers (Alex and William) have exciting futures.

Fun story, Michael Nylander — Alex and William’s father — had his final NHL goal assisted on by Brooks Laich, who also happened to have the assist on William’s first NHL goal.

I was going to google this, but decided it wasn’t a wormhole I wanted to go down.

Hopefully you’re feeling optimistic. Optimistic that the world can still be a better place, it’s the best thing to do.

“Talk about” isn’t a question, Tom.

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  1. Follow up to the Brett Ritchie question: Ideally, we’d like for him to find his finish and become a scoring winger. However, if he somehow can’t ever seem to find that scoring touch again, could you see him as a long-term, permanent fixture in the bottom six? He has good size and he plays a grinding, board-battle style that is often found in good bottom six wingers. Or is he more of a “top six or bust” type player?

    • I think that’s possible with Ritchie, I had high expectations and hoped he’d become a top-six option. But he does play the style you’d like to see in the bottom six.

      I think the key for that transition would be to become a penalty killer, because you need to see that out of bottom-six forwards, and Ritchie’s lack of production on the power play hasn’t provided much confidence he should still hold that role.

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