STARS MAILBAG: Splitting Benn and Seguin, central struggles, and smoke screens

I don’t have a good anecdotal story to lead the mailbag this week, so let’s just dive into the questions….

Readers ask questions, I try my best to give insightful answers.

https://twitter.com/andy_pantalones/status/928385305295585280

First we need to define the Detroit Red Wings model, because I think they sometimes get too much credit for the draft-and-develop mantra.

Yes, Detroit had several homegrown stars in Steve Yzerman, Pavel Datsyuk, and Nicklas Lidström. But the Red Wings weren’t a championship team in 1997 until after they acquired Brendan Shanahan and Larry Murphy — two eventual Hall of Famers — in the offseason.

When Detroit won the Stanley Cup in 2002 they did it by bringing in three more Hall of Famers in the offseason in Dominik Hasek, Brett Hull, and Luc Robitaille.

Those signings and trades supplemented drafted and developed players, who were often buried for an extended period of time, for example Datsyuk was drafted in 1998, but didn’t play in the NHL until 2002.

Detroit also had the benefit of finding players deep in the draft that others didn’t know existed, and much of that was thanks to Jim Nill. As Detroit continued to have success others took notice and started scouting where Detroit did, or teams like Dallas would hire away Red Wings employees.

So there isn’t a disconnect between Nill and the Detroit model. It’s just an evolution of what the Detroit model looks like today, and that’s how Nill developed his mentality of letting prospects over-ripen in the minors.

https://twitter.com/dramasays/status/928378558417948672

I believe trading Antoine Roussel would be a sign that the Stars aren’t contenders and aren’t confident they’ll be competing late into the postseason.

Roussel is a player I would want in the postseason. When he can toe the line he can be a difference maker in the postseason and get under the opponent’s skin. In addition, I don’t think a return for Roussel would make the Stars a better team this season.

But if the Stars are in the middle of the pack in February or dropping in the standings, it would make sense to trade the winger. He’s a pending unrestricted free agent, he’s going to want a raise, and allowing him to walk in free agency would give the Stars more cap space and roster flexibility for Valeri Nichushukin’s return from the KHL.

https://twitter.com/aacobb/status/928702514438066176

The coaching staff has Jamie Oleksiak higher on the depth chart than Julius Honka. You also have the fact the Stars don’t want to risk losing Oleksiak on waivers — even though I think he would clear at this time of year.

https://twitter.com/terrywelty/status/928348104889286656

As an optimist, and this is for both sides, I think they’ll find a trade partner and move Jamie Oleksiak at some point before the 2018-19 season.

As a realist, the Stars will likely re-sign the pending RFA in the off-season and you’ll be asking me the same question at this time next season.

That’s what happened.

Personally I need to apologize to readers for buying Ken Hitchcock’s smoke screen about the California road trip. I should have asked Jim Nill about the cap situation earlier in the week instead of waiting until Wednesday.

https://twitter.com/ForbiddenDonuts/status/928755298675851264

You might save yourself some stress if you do that. And if he does become a full-time player with Dallas it’ll be a pleasant surprise.

https://twitter.com/robbvious/status/928419132281950209

Not at this moment.

I did get an update on Honka’s progress yesterday from a scout (who doesn’t work for Dallas) that watched the Texas Stars twice this week in California:

“He’s talented enough and ready for the NHL, but he’s not getting better or making smart plays down here. He’s turning the puck over more than he should and trying to do too much. As a team they have their AHL regulars as their best players, you’d want Honka to be their best player, and he could and should be, but he wasn’t.”

https://twitter.com/scf211/status/928475563748184070

Kari Lehtonen may steal the occasional start and play more than we expected him to, but I don’t see him doing anything to jeopardize Ben Bishop’s starting role.

The Stars have to do something to generate offense, but I don’t like the idea of moving Jamie Benn to center, especially when you already have a half a dozen centers playing out of position.

Splitting Benn and Seguin up isn’t the end of the world. If you think about the NHL as a whole, some of the best teams have their top-two players split up to create more matchup issues.

I don’t think it sticks long-term, so I wouldn’t be overly worried. I also don’t think it’ll impact Seguin’s future plans.

Winning or losing will have the biggest impact on Seguin as a free agent.

https://twitter.com/supernova2395/status/928397770150555649

If there was a good answer the problem would have been fixed by now. Each time we’ve asked players or coaches about that subject the answer has been somewhere along the lines of, “we were bad early. We have to get better.”

One player that hasn’t started slow in games this season is Gemel Smith, who is getting rewarded for that effort tomorrow night by playing on the first line with Jamie Benn and Alexander Radulov.

I ended up discussing Smith’s pregame routines with him this week after practice. Smith listens to motivational speeches before each game from Eric Thomas, a motivational speaker with a series titled, “When You Want To Succeed As Bad As You Want To Breathe.”

Smith said those messages have been a big key to his success this season, and they’ve helped him stay focussed after he was scratched for nine straight games after opening night. Something seems to be working for Smith, maybe the rest of his teammates should join him in his pre-game listening.

https://twitter.com/Paulbradb/status/928395829873913856

If it really is on Ken Hitchcock, than he has to figure out the pulse of his team.

Good coaches can push the right motivational buttons, at the moment the Stars’ starts would indicate that he isn’t doing a good job of that.

https://twitter.com/andy_pantalones/status/928805687756541954

It’s not a design of Hitchcock’s system, but it might be a side effect of the system change.

The Stars are asking players work hard and play smart, detailed hockey. And for the most part they’ve been doing that in their own zone. At the same time it could be creating an atmosphere where depth forwards aren’t comfortable in the offensive zone, and are content with simply impressing the coaches in the other two zones.

We also have to consider that there isn’t much natural offensive talent in the bottom three lines. While there is potential from a handful of players, this roster isn’t built with proven scorers after the top line.

https://twitter.com/Joewalton9090/status/928349442951954432

Not for a defenseman, but I could see the Stars in the market for a winger.

I think if you make a reactionary trade to others in the division at this point you are making a bad trade. It would be rushing and would feel like a forced move.

Having patience in this situation makes the most sense. That will allow other options to open up and allow the Stars to get a better read on their own situation with their forwards.

https://twitter.com/RobertTiffin/status/928345282869313536

Ken Hitchcock likes Martin Hanzal and Jason Spezza together because it’s a big line that balances offense and defense — at least that’s the ideal, actual results have varied.

Personally, I’m not a fan of that line and I believe it’s a pair that’s too slow for today’s NHL.

I think Spezza can still be successful, but it needs to be a role where he can play with faster players and be more of a distributor than a puck carrier. He needs to defer possession on zone entries, allowing faster players to push the rush, and join the play as a late shooting option or passer that draws attention — that’s not a role he can play with Hanzal and Remi Elie.

https://twitter.com/BestInTexas7/status/928734602503639040

Potentially, the key is finding a team that’s desperate for center help or recently suffered an injury down the middle.

If Spezza isn’t producing he’s going to be difficult to trade, so the Stars would have to hope there is another GM out there that would look at Spezza as an easy reclamation project that just needs a change of scenery.

https://twitter.com/philbert53/status/928739993610260481

I think it’s the opposite.

I think Hitchcock wants Spezza to pull a line up by himself and force it to be better offensively. He believes that deep down Spezza can still be a point-per-game player, and this is his way of challenging Spezza to step up and prove he can be a point producer while lower in the lineup.

Personally I disagree with this line of thinking. While you want to challenge players, you also need to put them in the best position to succeed.

https://twitter.com/BigZeeRex/status/928656675057422336

Line juggling. The Stars don’t really have many call-up/scratch options, so those decisions will be in usage and setting the lines.

https://twitter.com/zachj10/status/928659003558846465

While the numbers haven’t been as desired, Mike McKenna has played well for the Texas Stars and the defense hasn’t been very good.

The quantity of shots isn’t eye-popping, but the quality of chances allowed is rather alarming for the Texas Stars. They don’t keep advanced stats in the AHL, at least not publicly, but I would place a good bet that more than half of the shots against have come from high-danger areas or situations.

Mike McKenna and Landon Bow have actually passed the eye test, but there is only so much that can be done when your defenders are allowing multiple rushes a period and giving up the center of the ice.

Is that coaching? Yes, but it’s also on the makeup of the Texas Stars defense. The defense is a mix of older, slower players and a younger ones still learning the speed of the AHL, and it’s created a less than ideal situation for the AHL goalies.

The Texas Stars have done a good job of churning out bottom-six hard-working players, and you need those to succeed in today’s NHL.

The fact Texas hasn’t produced a top-six forward isn’t an indictment on the AHL team, it’s an indictment on the overall system and the Stars lack of true quality forward prospects in the past four or five season.

Also keep in mind that top-six forwards are less common, and amongst the Stars younger forwards that played in AHL this season only three — Denis Gurianov, Roope Hintz, and Jason Dickinson — really have future potential as a top-six forward.

The Stars do have future top-six forward in the system, but they are currently play in Europe, major junior, or NCAA.

https://twitter.com/realbeardo/status/928345057425592321

Don’t think that’s going to happen.

It’s not looking like a good signing right now. It’s also hard to judge because of the injuries.

Talking to Martin Hanzal yesterday, he estimated that of his 12 game this season he’s only been fully healthy for three of them.

That doesn’t excuse his play in those three games he’s been healthy, where he wasn’t very good, but it’s gives a slight pause and a chance to embrace optimism — if you are in to that sort of thing.

If you aren’t into optimism, and I completely understand if you aren’t, this his been a signing that Hanzal needs to help justify with much better play very soon.

https://twitter.com/BobSchaller/status/928357400024879104

Assigning Martin Hanzal or Jason Spezza to the AHL wouldn’t be an option.

Both players have no-movement clauses in their contract, protecting them from being waived or assigned to the AHL without their permission. If the Stars decided they were going to part ways with either player, it would have to come via trade this season, or they could look into a buy-out before the 2018-19 season.

https://twitter.com/zachj10/status/928345011879579649

There isn’t one company line of thinking and it depends on the individual prospect or player.

Some players, Riley Tufte for example, benefit from the college route because of the increased off-ice work and the ability to be patient with physical development. Others, like Radek Faksa, benefit from major junior’s game-heavy schedule and needed that extra repetition to prepare for the NHL.

Overall it comes down to this, they want a player to be comfortable enough to succeed, but they also want the prospect in a position where they can and will be pushed to the edge of their comfort zone.

https://twitter.com/BobSchaller/status/928349700817870848\

I haven’t watched Samuel Girard nearly as much as I’ve watched Julius Honka, so I can’t do a full side-by-side comparison.

However, from my observations, they both have similar strengths and weaknesses. Both Girard and Honka are best with the puck on their stick, and they can consistently create opportunities for their teammates with their passing and skating ability.

Both players need to get better defensively and improve their decision making, but that comes with the territory for a young defenseman.

Personally I think Honka is a more reliable option at this moment, but he’s also two years older and has close to 200 games of AHL experience. Until I have more of a sample size on Girard (say mid-point of this season) I’m not going to pick one over the other.

https://twitter.com/drakeunited/status/928369903970803712

In all reality? Nothing.

If the Stars are in the playoff picture after 20 games it’ll be considered a success.

If they are out of the playoff picture we’ll hear a new party line that it’s still early and there are 62 games to make up for it.

https://twitter.com/jmarose47/status/928750503269486592

It’s not too early to be concerned about success against the Central Division. Ken Hitchcock doesn’t seem to like when we ask about that, meaning it’s actually becoming a key concern for the coaching staff.

Winnipeg is a good hockey team, the Stars are an average team at this point in the season. And, yes, it is concerning that the Stars can’t figure out how to properly start a game against the Jets.

https://twitter.com/BobSchaller/status/928416757097918465

If it’s based off a fan vote it’ll be Tyler Seguin into the All-Star Game. If it’s not based on fan voting Alexander Radulov could be a strong candidate for the All-Star Game.

Honka is not eligible for the Olympics.

https://twitter.com/ForbiddenDonuts/status/928755596236607488

If we are looking on a league-wide scale it’s Mattias Janmark. But I think locally people understood the role he played and how much he was missed last season.

https://twitter.com/1FortyOne/status/928356370453327874

It was just time. Every three or four months I decide that it’s time to go clean shaven and than I just let it grow back.

https://twitter.com/StarsPotter214/status/928396101270605824

Use your Twitter characters wisely. You can often say more with less.

I’m already happily married.

https://twitter.com/EarlAllen_48/status/928743098053791744

The Minnesota Wild play on Tuesday and Thursday next week, including a divisional matchup against the Nashville Predators on Thursday.

If you want a great college hockey experience the University of Minnesota plays Harvard next Friday.

Or, who will be the greatest Dallas Star behind Mike Modano: Jamie Oleksiak, Jordie Benn, or Patrick Stefan?

— Holiday Edging Beardo (@realbeardo) November 8, 2017

There is an entire chapter in my book about Jordie Benn, so him.