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STARS MAILBAG: Too quiet on the movement front? Russian mentors and setting goalie market

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In two weeks the NHL Entry Draft will be held in Chicago, which means my annual draft guide will publish next week for subscribers.

The draft guide features scouting reports and notes on more than 100 prospects and stories on how the Stars will approach the draft. In the past it’s been built as a PDF, but after May’s reader survey and looking into digital options the draft guide is going to be built as a page at Wrong Side of the Red Line that will be quicker to update (in case Dallas trades No. 3) and easier to access from mobile devices.

I will also officially be introducing a yearly option for subscriptions at that time, which is something readers asked for in the survey. You can still subscribe through Patreon (it’s only $3 per month), but there will also be an option to pay $36 for a 12-month subscription for those interested in that option.

(If you are interested in the yearly option and already want to sign up you can reach me via email here).

Over the past couple weeks I’ve tried to give a slight idea of how the subscription model will work during the regular season. Parts of the site will be free, but there will be more exclusive content for subscribers on both the regular season and other key events (the draft, development camp, Traverse City Prospect Camp, etc.)

It’s a small fee, $3 is less than a nice cup of coffee per month, and it really helps improve Stars coverage at this site and helps provide the recourses to expand the scope of coverage.

Now let’s get started with the mailbag…

I’m not surprised, but if we are asking the same question at this time next week I will be.

NHL general managers are a patient bunch — it’s why they need a trade deadline during the regular season to really push the transaction action — and no one wants to make a bad first move and miss out on other opportunities.

Teams still have more than a week to make their moves, and we are just waiting for that first domino — likely one pushed by George McPhee — to fall and put things into motion.

Jake Oettinger was one of the prospects Dallas had extended meetings with before the NHL Draft Combine.

This doesn’t mean the Stars will draft Oettinger, it just means the Stars have done their homework on the goalie and have a solid base of notes.

From my observation Oettinger has the best chance to succeed of any goalie in this draft. Personally I look at his combination of size, positioning, and his mental approach as three pillars that could turn him into a successful NHL goalie.

Does he look like a franchise goalie for sure? No one really knows. As Joe McDonnell, the Stars Director of Amateur Scouting, told me, “If we knew what would allow goalies to become what they did the really great ones wouldn’t be drafted as late as they usually are.”

It’s not a bad theory, and it’s one that could work if the Stars sign pending UFA Alexander Radulov.

Having a fellow countrymen in the locker room actually goes a long way in the NHL for younger Euros. Radek Faksa learned a lot from fellow Czech Ales Hemsky — Faksa lived with Hemsky for a while when he first got called up — while John Klingberg hosted fellow Swede Mattias Janmark in his home early in Janmark’s rookie season.

Nichushkin never really had that and his living situation was more isolated when he was in Dallas. Having a fellow Russian to speak Russian with and add a minor comfort of home could go a long way.

Leaving Nichushkin exposed in the expansion draft would be like a team leaving their top prospect exposed. He’s only 22, he’s a former first-round pick, and he has potential to be an elite NHL player.

The key word is potential, and that’s potential the Stars could really benefit from if he pans out within the next two to three seasons.

Gavin Bayreuther’s ceiling is as a top-four defenseman and power play specialist on the left side. He’s very athletic and moves well, but he still has much to learn on the defensive end and that’s the biggest question around his development — can he turn into an elite defender in his own zone?

Jason Dickinson can be a top-two center in the NHL. He’s a much better defensive player than Jason Spezza, but he doesn’t have the same ceiling offensively.

For me picking a goalie at No. 29 gives Dallas full of the control on the goalie market in the draft. With the 29th pick the Stars would likely be taking the first goalie in the draft and would have their choice of any goalie available.

The Stars could hope for Michael DiPietro at No. 39, but both he and Oettinger could be gone before that pick and then the Stars would have to reach deeper into the pool of goalie prospects.

I like Michael DiPietro and he impressed me at the Memorial Cup, but I still like Oettinger a bit more. I’m giving in a bit to the cliche that size matters, but it really does with goalies and Oettinger really impressed as an 18-year-old freshman in the college ranks.

I can confirm that Matej Stransky is being courted by a KHL team. I can also confirm that he’s had offers and potential European opportunities in each of the past two offseason if he wanted to pursue them.

If he does sign in Europe he likely won’t ever return to North America.

Stransky is a nice piece of the Stars organization, but he’s not a future NHL player. Even with improved skating and a bigger role in the AHL, Stransky simply doesn’t play the game at a quick enough level to succeed in the NHL — essentially he’s turned into a “4A” player that can be great in AHL, but not good enough for NHL.

Stransky would have gotten an NHL call-up at the end of this past season, but his facial injury made it too much of a liability when Dallas had a healthy Mark McNeill available to call up.

In an ideal world Stransky would be back with the Stars because of his leadership in the AHL and what he adds to the Texas Stars. However, I don’t see much of a future for him in Dallas.

If Nolan Patrick falls to No. 3 I would still be open to trading the pick. There are options available via trade that make the Stars a better team immediately. I also don’t foresee Patrick having an immediate impact on a team that is a contender in the NHL.

I’d put the odds at 60-40 in favor of Dallas holding onto the pick.

Jim Nill likes to do his homework, so him watching a player in the Memorial Cup shouldn’t be used as tea leaves to make draft predictions.

First of all more than 25 NHL general managers attended the Memorial Cup, it was the place to be to scout prospects and there aren’t many other games going on to scout at that time of year. We also have to remember that a player being scouted doesn’t mean that the scout actually liked the prospect. Nill may have watched Vilardi and seen a reason not to draft him.

The Bayreuther signing and going to his collegiate practices was more recruiting than scouting. The Stars already knew they wanted Bayreuther from scouting him in game play, so attending practices in upstate New York was a message to a college free agent that Dallas was serious about signing him.

I’ll make that judgement at development camp in early July.

Many national outlets I’ve seen have the Stars losing Stephen Johns in the expansion draft, thus a right handed defender would fit if that were the case. However I think is an oversight by others right now.

Nothing official. The Stars are waiting until all levels of playoffs are complete to make the hires on the coaching staff.

Former Stars assistant Rick Wilson has a history with Ken Hithcock and I would bet good money he’ll be on the Stars staff.

I’m also going to plug for Todd Nelson (again), who is currently coaching the Grand Rapids Griffins in the Calder Cup Final. Nelson’s teams play fast and he runs a precise, effective power play. I think Nelson could also be a good future head coach for the Stars (note, not an official coach in waiting) and learn under Hithcock for two or three seasons.

Marc-Andre Fleury, Stanley Cup winning goalie that always seems to have a smile on his face.

If Patrik Nemeth was worth a third-round pick he would have already been traded during this past season.

His greatest value is as part of a package.

Hopefully Adidas does a great job with the new jerseys for next season. I imagine it will just be minor changes, but noticeable enough that the NHL will roll out a successful campaign to sell more jerseys.

Right now I chalk that up as Brian Burke getting emotional about something and speaking without thinking.

There are so many factors here and we have no idea how the rest of the NHL will look next season, there are simply too many moving parts.

I think we can set realistic goals. The Stars ideally should be in the top ten in scoring, they have the talent to do so, and need to be a top-15 team in goals against — that’s a combination that should be a net positive.

The power play and penalty kill can only get better, so let’s set a low bar and hope the penalty kill is better than 20th and the power play is in the top 15.

Ludwig Bystrom is an RFA this summer and he should get a qualifying offer.

All signs, however, point to Bystrom heading back to Sweden. He never really seized an opportunity with the Texas Stars and never lived up to the “offensive defenseman” moniker he was given as a younger prospect.

There is also a family element for Bystrom — he’s going to be a father soon and his extended family still lives back in Sweden.

Qualifying offers are due in late June.

Radek Faksa, Brett Ritchie, and Esa Lindell are each going to get nice raises on either a long-term deal or a shorter bridge contracts. Patrik Nemeth and Jamie Oleksiak will likely both be qualified, but that is going to be more of a strategic play to control as many assets as possible.

Gemel Smith will also be a no-brainer to get qualified as a depth forward.

The defenseman I want wouldn’t be moved since Shea Theodore is exempt from the expansion draft.

This is the chart we are talking about:

Essentially Julius Honka drove possession and showed flashes of brilliance in limited NHL time this season.

There are some caveats we have to keep in mind with Honka. He did play in a more sheltered role last season, it’s a bit easier to drive possession and look elite when playing against lesser players or getting more offensive zone starts. That’s not Honka’s fault, it’s simply a fact we have to apply to young players.

Honka should have an expanded role next season, so we have to ask how will he adapt? Can he take a step forward and have similar possession numbers with higher expectations? And will Honka be able to weed out some of the mistakes he’s made that we would classify as rookie blunders?

Talent wise Honka has the ability to answer all these questions positively. Now it’s just a matter of seeing the application next season.

The Stars have hosted an All-Star Game before, so why not?

Think that’s up to Ken Hitchcock. If he says he only wants seven, I think the GM will do his part to finally pull the trigger and make a decision.

I’ll continue to push the Brendan Smith idea here. He could be a solid depth add on defense and be a crucial part of the penalty kill.

I think it’s more of an impact on the Nashville Predators than the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Predators have actually been the better team in four of the give games, but trail the series 3-2.

At home Nashville is comfortable and the bigger stage isn’t getting the best of them. In Pittsburgh they’ve struggled to deal with the pressure, while the Penguins made the most of their opportunities in Games 1 and 2.

I liked Casino Royale, but I admittedly haven’t seen every Bond film.

https://twitter.com/B_R_O_L_E_G/status/872549344557375488

Noted.

That bottle throwing incident in Game 5 was, well, interesting.

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