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STARS MAILBAG: Williams to Dallas? A Sharp return? How do we grade GM success?

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July 1 is an interesting day for hockey fans.

First it’s actually Christmas in July. Unrestricted free agents can sign with teams, and all of a sudden we have a much better look at what opening night rosters will look like in October.

It’s also the beginning of the slow season. Sure the Stars will have prospect development camp July 7 through 11, but overall July and August don’t offer much for hockey fans — personally I’ll be working on my book, closing on a new house, and taking vacation during those months.

So, with that in mind I wanted to say a quick thank you to everyone that’s submitted questions and enjoyed this mailbag during the 2016-17 season. It’s been fun interacting with an expanded audience and we’ll be back for another edition of the mailbag next week.

Let’s get started:

As a group I get a feeling that Stars fans completely trust that Jim Nill will build their team into a contender, and his style works well into that narrative.

Nill makes the big trades, he’s not afraid to pull the trigger on the unexpected moves that often come with an element of surprise (see the Tyler Seguin trade). This offseason the Stars have done a nice job of solidifying their defense by trading for Marc Methot, which was a prime example of Nill seizing an opportunity.

In fact Nill has been one of the more effective, and active, GMs in the NHL since the 2017 NHL Trade Deadline as he’s worked to make up for this past season.

However, we have to look at the good with the bad. While Nill has made the flashy trades, there have also been mistakes and his teams have only made the playoffs twice in four seasons. And if the Stars miss the playoffs after this season, you could argue Nill is on the so-called hot seat.

The past two seasons have been low-lighted by a lack of direction on defense because the Stars continued to carry eight defenders and didn’t make a move — or more importantly a commitment — to a set group, and that ultimately hurt the confidence and development of a trio of players (Stephen Johns, Jamie Olekisk, Patrik Nemeth).

That same question now comes into play this offseason as the Stars have nine defenders at this moment — one or two will have to be moved or waived before October.

Ultimately, this may be the season we can set a fair grade on Nill’s work in Dallas. How does he manage free agency? How does he set up the cap situation for Seguin’s upcoming contract extension? And can he build a team that advances past the second round of the playoffs?

There is a lot to like with what Nill has done since April of 2013, and it’s a much better track record than the five seasons prior to his arrival in Dallas (zero playoff appearances). And building a winner admittedly takes time, but Nill still has to prove he can check off those final boxes to be considered a completely successful GM in Dallas.

Based on other reports (including the one from Darren Dreger) and speaking to a couple others more familiar with Justin Williams, I feel pretty confident saying the Stars are on his short list.

I think Williams would be a good fit in Dallas on a two-year contract. He could play on the top line with Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin, while he’s versatile enough to play lower in the lineup if the Stars want to give a younger player (perhaps Brett Ritchie) a chance to play on the top line.

Ideally you are looking at a two-year deal for the 35-year-old in the $3.5-million range, and the Stars have the cap space to make such a move. The bigger question is how Williams’ price will be impacted by the open market.

With a watered down free agent class he could reap the benefits and get overpaid on a long-term contact.

The Colorado Avalanche need defenders and have the time to see if Jamie Oleksiak will turn into what many expected when he was drafted in the first round.

Patrick Nemeth doesn’t really move the needle for many teams. He just doesn’t have an NHL track record of success that would move an NHL GM to give up another asset to acquire. If Nemeth is moved it would likely have to be as part of a bigger deal.

I’m not sure how I feel about Mike Cammalleri, but I just have a hunch that Dallas will be in the mix for the winger.

As of this moment the Stars haven’t formally hired Jim Bedard to replace Mike Valley. There hasn’t been an announcement and when Jim Nill was asked about Bedard last month he said he was certainly a candidate, but he wanted to wait to announced all of his coaches together.

When the Stars did announced their assistant coaches Bedard wasn’t in the release. His status is a question that I’ll likely be able to ask next week after the Stars are done sorting through free agency this weekend.

More likely that Patrick Sharp or Ales Hemsky are back in Dallas.

Calgary makes sense to me on Sharp.

It would be a very good fit. While there are several 30-plus UFAs and even some into their 40s, Sam Gagner is only 27 and proved he was viable top-six NHL player last season with the Columbus Blue Jackets.

He’s going to get a raise, but the Stars have the cap flexibility to work with Gagner and he could be a good fit as a right wing (yes, I know he’s technically a center).

It’s possible, but with how Nill has operated in the past I think a trade for a top-six winger would include a player that we aren’t expecting to move — someone that will surprise us and lead to a bit of a Twitter overreaction (in a positive or negative way).

If I’m the Stars and I’m embracing the win-now ideal, I’m not limiting myself to looking at just expiring contracts.

I don’t see too many opportunities for that at this moment. There could be a chance if another team swings big on a free agent on July 1 and needs to make room.

Ship hasn’t sailed on Patrick Sharp and Ales Hemsky. Both players had talks with the Stars this week, and I wouldn’t be shocked if either player re-signed with Dallas.

Scott Darling would have been my first choice, but I also don’t have to bet my job that career back-up will take the next step and become an effective NHL starter.

Darling in my mind could be one of the NHL’s better goalies this coming season.

I like what the Stars did with the coaching staff, and seeing some of their interactions during the NHL Entry Draft week it seems like they are already on the same page.

At first I was a bit surprised Curt Fraser was back on staff, but I think a big-picture and eye-in-the-sky role will be good for him. Fraser’s biggest issue last season was the in-game adjustments (this also falls on Lindy Ruff) and he won’t be responsible for that this season.

I don’t think that’s an option the Stars would pursue.

With how his career has progressed I would pass on that.

(See above about Yakupov).

As for realistic progression timelines:

Miro Heiskanen: likely one more season in Finland, then a trip to the AHL, maybe an NHL option in three seasons. Depends on how quickly he progresses.

Jake Oettinger: Ideally two more years in college, followed by two full seasons starting in the AHL. NHL back-up in fifth-year of Bishop’s contract, and challenging for starting job in year six.

Jason Robertson: Another year in the OHL followed by time in the AHL. Could be an NHL option after two AHL seasons.

The rest of the draft picks are shots in the dark, frankly. Putting a realistic NHL timeline on fourth-round pick or below would be a bit foolish.

I believe Heiskanen was first on the Stars draft board. Stars director of amateur scouting Joe MacDonnell said it and he’s always been rather straight forward and refreshingly honest in interviews.

As far as entry-level contracts, I can’t see any current AHL-contracted players that might snag an NHL contract next season.

Brandon DeFazio could have been an option (while it wouldn’t have been an ELC), but a lack of interest from NHL teams is the reason he left for the KHL this summer.

A grouping of Benn, Spezza, and Methot makes sense as your captains.

Devin Shore and Jason Dickinson are good young players, and they could be a key part of a deal to land a top-six winger. They aren’t untouchable in my mind and really only one prospect (Julius Honka) has been deemed untouchable by the Stars brass the past couple seasons.

Back to Shore and Dickinson. If I can add one of those players and Oleksiak to my future I would gladly do it if I’m in a position where I’m trading away a top-six (likely older) winger.

I will ask those in the know next week before development camp.

He’d be fun to cover from a media perspective.

I am looking into this. I’ve been seeing some other RSS feed problems as well.

Can’t put a number ranking on it, but I would make a case the Stars prospect pool is in the top half of the league. It’s not a top-10 class, but it’s certainly above average.

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