Top Ten Rangers Prospect Rankings: #s 6-10

Prospect lists aren’t inherently the most useful of tools due to their subjective nature at heart. A mentor once described the process as, “forming our subjective thoughts about a player into an objective scale”, which stuck with me. As scouting grades were designed as an objective scale where each grade had an objective meaning, it’s up to scouts to use their past experiences and trained eye in order to make the best possible estimation of that tool, then use that players tools to project them into a “role”. Once you’ve assigned two players the same role, you’re saying you think they should provide similar value and personal thoughts on a player seep into the ranking process. Two scouts may like a player more or less based on a few factors: how close they are to the majors, if their personality is conducive to success, similarities to players they saw develop into MLB players, or for some reason known only to the scout.

While prospect rankings for professional players might not be inherently useful, they are great learning tools in order to read and learn about what scouts look at to create future projections and they are also damned fun. Let’s get into the Rangers top 10 prospects, broken up into two sets, and why I think they deserve to be where they are.

#10: Kyle Cody – RHP
Kyle Cody just edges out Yohander Mendez on my preference list for making the top 10. Cody is a huge bodied pitcher who deals at 6’7” and 250 lbs. His fastball sits at 93 and comes in at a steep plane which makes it extremely difficult for right handed hitters to see out of the hand. Cody’s improvement as an athlete and clean arm and delivery allow him to command the pitch well despite his height, and allows the fastball to be a major weapon in his arsenal. Cody also deals an above-average slider with heavy dive and some glove-side movement that can give righties fits when used low and away. It’s also a good tool for catching a left handed hitter off guard by dropping it in on the back foot. Cody has great feel for the pitch and he mixes it into his selection well. He throws his changeup with good deception and it’s effective in throwing off the hitter, but it has fringy dive and no arm-side action. Ultimately, I choose Cody here over Mendez for two reasons: Cody’s command and feel for the fastball will allow him to lean on it heavily and Cody’s harder fastball and slider combo should allow for a more natural transition into the bullpen if his changeup doesn’t develop enough for him to stick as a starter. Cody currently projects as a #5 workhorse on an MLB club with upside tied to his changeup development.

#9: Chris Seise – SS
Chris Seise is a name that could move up these lists much quicker than anticipated due to a natural athleticism and the ability to stick at shortstop. Seise has excellent feel for the shortstop position with smooth and easy lateral range and soft hands and transitions when fielding. His plus speed will allow him to get to balls deep in the hole and his plus arm will allow him to make the hard throws across the diamond. Overall, Seise should be a plus defender at shortstop and that gives him a big chance of breaking into the MLB one day. Seise is coordinated with good feel for barrel and does produce above average bat speed. At 6’2” 185 lbs, there’s room for some more muscle without slowing down and he could pick up a couple of notches in his raw power. Currently his swing doesn’t translate his average raw power into extra base hits and home runs, but that could change with adjustment to his approach and intent. Seise is an aggressive hitter and could improve by being more selective at the plate. It’s possible his swing won’t ever allow him to tap into his power while his fringy OBP skills won’t allow him to make up that gap in production and he’ll be relegated to a AAA/utility role on an MLB club. As it is, Seise projects as an MLB average glove first SS with offensive upside.

#8: Joe Palumbo – LHP
The “could have been” story of the year was unfortunately shut down early in 2017 after an injury to the UCL that required Tommy John surgery. Before that, Palumbo flashed his upside and it left an impression. The 6’1” 185 lb. southpaw has a clean arm and delivery that gets a great deal of arm speed out of his body. He drives and rotates with his left leg and his core flexibility allows him to create a great deal of tension to unwind and release with the delivery. As a result, his fastball sits between 92 and 94 and his athleticism and body control allow him to command the zone better than his delivery would suggest. His arm speed allows him to generate heavy spin on his plus curveball with excellent depth and he has feel for the pitch. He also has feel for an average changeup with good deception, but limited dive and movement. His delivery is medium-high intensity and requires a great deal of body control and feel, but he’s a good enough athlete that he should have average command. It’s possible that his command won’t improve enough to stick as a starter, but his power fastball and plus curve would allow him to transition nicely into a bullpen role. With his three pitch mix and improving command, Palumbo projects as a #4/5 starter on an MLB team.

#7: Cole Ragans – LHP
Cole Ragans paints a picture of what pitching prospects should look like. He’s left-handed, has a frame that could put on lean muscle without losing flexibility, he’s tall, and he looks like an unshakable stone on the mound. He’s also in possession of what a mentor once described as a “cheat code” for the lower levels: a developed changeup. The art of consistently picking up and recognizing a plus changeup is a skill that lower-level hitters haven’t acquired, so Cole likely won’t have any trouble racking up strikeouts until AA. Ragans throws a fastball that sits around 91 with fringy sinking action. He has the athleticism and clean arm to eventually command the pitch well, but he has a ways to go. Ragans keeps hitters off-balance with the aforementioned plus changeup with exceptional deception and some dive and arm-side movement. Ragans’ third offering is a curveball that flashes average, but he will need to show better feel for the pitch for it to be a consistently effective offering. Ragans has the physical tools that suggest improvements to the command and curveball should be coming, but he will need both of those to pitch at an MLB level. If he continues to gain strength, muscle control, and consistency; his three pitch mix and above average command projection should allow him to solidify a spot as a middle of the rotation arm on a first division team.

#6: Ronald Guzman – 1B (Full Report)
Let’s start with the good: Guzman has natural feel for hitting, has improved his approach consistently from level to level, has adjusted to improving pitching, makes a lot of contact, fields his position well even though he doesn’t have great lateral range, and provides a massive target (6’5 with a huge wing span) for his infielder. He can also do the splits (it’s insane). The question is whether or not he will develop enough game power to generate the offensive production that is necessary to provide value from a position where offensive production is an absolute must. A first glance at Guzman’s offensive production in AAA last season seems promising (.298 average and 112 wRC+), but a glance at his ground ball rate and inflated BABIP tell a different story. Even assuming he could maintain that level of production, a 112 wRC+ would rank 20th out of 27 qualified first baseman and not a single one of those last seven produced a single win’s worth of value to their club by fWAR. Long story short, Guzman needs to tap into his plus raw power more in order to provide MLB average production from 1B. How much he is able to do so will determine his future role on a team. It’s not a matter of strength, Guzman is completely filled out and has tremendous size and strength, it’s a matter of adjusting his approach to deal damage and pull the ball in the air or on a line.

Guzman has the tools and ability to be an MLB average first baseman if he can make a small adjustment to his approach and has the upside for a bit more if he can overhaul it.

Final Thoughts
I’m encouraged by the pieces the Rangers have for their 6-10 prospects. Each has a path to be MLB quality players and many have the potential for upside to provide impact. Tomorrow, the Top 5 Ranger prospects will be revealed and I think that 2018 is going to be a very fun year to keep up with the kids on the farm.