The Zack Greinke Recon Mission

Approximately thirteen seconds after posting my article about yesterday’s comments by Chris Gimenez, the news cycle nodded politely and moved on to bigger things: Zack Greinke might be moving eastward.

I spent the evening in the hotel lobby asking new friends what they were hearing. One guy with ties to the Diamondbacks front office told me that they weren’t as interested in dealing Greinke as Texas was in acquiring him. I asked another scout with an AL team what else he thought Texas would include. Profar?

“It was Greinke for Choo, straight up,” was the answer. “With a little money changing hands for that last year, but not much.”

The rumored deal makes a lot of sense, assuming it was Texas proposing the deal. (You have to think that if Arizona made that call, the Rangers’ end of the conversation would include Jon Daniels holding his phone’s mouthpiece and whispering frantically to Mike Daly “GO! GO TO ARIZONA’S SUITE NOW! TAKE A PEN!“)

After all, Choo is making $20m, $21m, and $21m over the next three years as he plays at ages 35-37. The Rangers’ lineup is a little too left-handed, and with Choo gone, Willie Calhoun could slide into a full-time DH role, allowing Texas the flexibility to improve their defense by adding either a left fielder or a first baseman, and putting Joey Gallo in whatever spot remains. Someone to keep an eye on: first baseman and old friend of the club Mitch Moreland is rumored to be seeking a one year deal in the $7-8m range.

Greinke is making $31m, $31.5m, $32m, and $32m over the next four years as he plays at ages 34-37, though there are some deferrals in his contract. According to Spotrac, $62.5m of his original $206.5m deal is deferred from 2022-2026, though it is unclear just how much of that will be culled from his 2018-2020 years. According to Mike Gianella at Baseball Prospectus, the actual difference in 2018 dollars would only be $4m (!!!)

Texas needs pitching, and if they could get him for a net increase of just $4-$10m/year instead of the expected $20m+ for the top-level free agents, it would be an insanely shrewd move.

But the big question remains: why would Arizona ship off Zack Greinke for Shin-Soo Choo and cash? The consensus on the hotel lobby floor and the media workroom is that—if Arizona did in fact have any interest in the deal—it would be about freeing up an extra $10m a year, perhaps to bring J.D. Martinez back. Maybe Arizona feels good enough about their young rotation that they feel they can absorb the loss of Greinke. Or maybe they’re trying to shed a big contract for a guy who—despite striking out 215 batters last season struck out 215 batters last season—is entering into the mid-30s Danger Zone.

NOTES:
Texas reportedly signed its second Bahamian 16-year-old in as many days. This time, it was outfielder D’Vaughn Knowles (Yesterday was SS Keithron Moss). Neither player has passed his physical yet, however, so the team still has no official comment, nor will they acknowledge the move.

I got in touch with Chris Gimenez after yesterday’s article. He clarified that he did not mean the “rules” talk to imply that he had anything negative to say about the Rangers or any players. He called Adrian Beltre his favorite teammate of all time, and said he was simply relaying that all teams handle their clubhouse rules a little differently. Some guys fit some clubhouses better than others. He said Darvish was just doing his homework on Minnesota (which means Thad’s pursuit of Darvish is real).